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You cant really make those assessments with some sort of a backtest... Whether you know it or not,you are simply advocating scaling in vs a single entry. With that said,I am not saying you are not profitable,but I do think your logic is flawed.The good news is that the market is efficient...

I was asking how far you let your profits run on the upside.. I am sure you realise that the fibs aer secondary to your approach,and you are basically making the argument that 1) Scaling in is a superior strategy or 2) You are emotionally more comfortable with scaling in. I would...

Yup,we are 100% on the same page..Do you trade systems as well and look at MAE?? I only brought up revisiting your entry as I assume there are many times(hopefully) that you are only 1/3 of your full position size... Do you have a program that permits you to backtest your approach...

I think we define 38,50 and 68% differently.. So when you say your first buy is at the 68% retracement level,that to me means price retraced 68% of the move.You then buy more at the 50% and more at the 38%.To me that meant pyramiding,not scaling in(averaging down)..But it seems that you scale...

If I understand you correctly,you wait until a 61.8% retracement to buy your fitst lot,and add at the 50% and 38.2%%.If wrong,you liquidate at the the full retracement...And where do you sell at a profit? If I am right how can you say you dont care and buy all of them?? Do you know in...

You Fib knockers are taking these golden ratios way too seriously.. Trading Fibs = Trading retracements..no more no less..Is that such an outlandish concept? Agreed,if anyone claims there ar magical numbers to trade,they are selling you something you shouldnt be buying.. Bit if I am...

Yes,fundamentals and technicals are often in conflict,which implies that there are times when the fundamentals and technicals are pointing in the same direction..

I am with you... There is no hard and fast rules regarding averaging up vs averaging down or going all in.. The most important aspect is having a sound trading discilpine,money management and sticking to it.. I have found if you are a fundamental value trader,one is better off averaging...

Kon,wasnt referring to you at all.... Its "disturbing" to see all these keyboard warriors spew trading 101 at a guy who has the balls to lay it all out there for all to see and attempt to make 10 fold on his money..... Its like going into the ring with the heavyweight champ of the world...

Neke,pay no mind to these nannnering neighbobs of negativity..If anyone has traded for more than 30 seconds,they would understand that a 40% drawdown is to be expected when attempting to take 410k to 4 mil by year end...

Ahhh,the roulette table ...

Drcha, I 100% agree with you but was a bit stumped why the poster wrote that verticals have a negative expectancy.Zero is one thing,but negative is another. Perhaps I am not understanding what he is saying,but it doesnt appear likely that a negative expectancy can exist for the buyer as well...

Are you saying all vertical spreads have a negative expectancy?? Would you please elaborate,as i dont believe that to be true. Thanks, Tao

I havent looked at tax trades in a long time,but there may be some sort of tax code which defines the minimum % strike level one must sell that does not negate the long term holding tax advantage

You want to make 3 bucks + dividends minus carry over 2 years and take downside risk?

Its not so much vega you appear to be hedging,its your delta/gamma..Big difference.. And there is no solution to the problem,its the nature of the beast. You could opt NOT to hedge,and cover/liquidate at a predetermined option price/level of the stock.

I have Amibroker and Stratasearch as well,and use both with Quotes Plus.StrataSearch is an excellent program,and there are many safeguards against "curvefitting".There are full blown walk foward analysis,dynamic strategies as well as Monte carlo simulations.. What I like most about SS is the...

GOOG is a terrible example... By your definition it is worthless,yet MR market values it at $587.That is a very large discrepencie.How should I side with,the voice of 1 man or the voice of supply and demand? Just out of curiousity,have you been short GOOG since $290,a somewhat conservative...

That is a ridiculous theoretical example which has nothing to do with the merits of a dividend discount model vs disounted cash flow.. Are you actually trying to say the owner of the preferred shares wouldnt buy back the common?? Whats your point??

Big D, Oneil is a momentum player as opposed to a value investor.Notice that dividends/disbursements have nothing to do with valuation.Dividends have nothing to do with intrinsic value. The value investor and the Momentum trader must make forcasts on future earnings as both models rely...