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This should be part of your development process, otherwise it would be too late. Does your strategy work well in several markets? If not, the probability that is fitted is 99.999999%

Most actual (not speculative) transactions in the fx market are spot with 1:1 leverage. I have been trading spot forex for 25 years with 1:1 leverage. It is rather simple. if you have above a certain amount in a bank you can get dealing prices to convert it to any currency you want. In this way...

(1) Yes, but your decision will be also random (2) 7 million $ question

True but you are missing the point completely.

Good questions that royally describes the current confusion in the statistics filed. Sure you can get a trend tossing a coin. What is that? Isn't that a trend? Isn't that trend generated by a random process? What is the difference between a trend generated by a random process and a...

Banks do not day trade other than in forex but that is commercial transactions. Banks do value investing for clients. The technical traders when competing with value traders always lose. This is a cardinal rule of the market. Most trends are random motions and involve no value this is why...

For several years up to maybe version 8, metastock was generating wrong backtesting results. For example it would not correctly open a long position at the open of next day (bar) if another long position was closed on current day (bar). That impacted the results for swing/postion trading systems...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3552381&highlight=#post3552381 In the above thread, JCL argued that price series autocorrelation dissapears after a few days. You now say the opposite. I think you two have explaning to do. This forum cannot tolerate such...

This is only way. If you cannot find an edge with pattern recognition, then it does not exist. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2968698#post2968698 Not all methods work well. Some are simple curve-fits: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=239129...

If you plan to make 10K trades per day you should be aware of their trading agreement clause that you will not "submit any Order that is artificial or fictitious or place an Order that is designed to give the market a false or misleading impression as to the supply or demand, value or price...

You will be accused of being negative by Januson the programmer.:)

Maybe the answer is leverage. 50:1 in forex, 2% to 10% margin in futures, only 4:1 leverage in equities with a day pattern trader stupid rule. All charts look the same anyway, most choose the leverage.

IMO a non-programmer can manage programmers and a large software project if he understands flowcharting. However, and this is the big however, why do you want 10,000 trades per day? Are you going to play MM? Are you shooting for rebates? I don't think there can be an edge in medium...

I am glad his huge drawdown is a little reduced: http://www.barchart.com/charts/futures/CIY00

1: For 2% risk and account size with margin 100K you select the smaller number of shares as given below N1= 1000/stop, stop is in points (ex. $2 off the entry price) N2 = 100000/p, where p is the stock price Take N = min(N1, N2) (In other words you never exceed purchasing power while...

Really? What do you think you know about probability theory? Which of the four definitions of probability you like the most and why? This is the problem with you people. You know nothing and you have an attitude instead of thanking those that try to help you. Prove that the win rate of a...

No offense but you got no idea of what you are talking about. The win rate used in the expectation formula is the average win rate as the number of trials becomes very large. There is no such thing as stationary win rate except maybe in HFT. In the meantime, the win rate can get to as low as 0%...

Excellent point.

hmm...

I see you have no intention of implementing even the minimum of a standard where the journal creator is required to post the price and time of a new position. This is really sad for ET. There are journals where prices are not even mentioned just a plain "bought XYZ". I have to tell you that this...