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    Ewj: elliott wave

    Okay guys, I pop in here from time to time to see what's going on, and I must say that it looks like the EW thread is where the hardest working T.A.'s are. I have something for you guys to look at. It seems like it has gone relatively unnoticed by many. My question is this: "Are we about...
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    meats

    Yes, the technicals have really deteriorated during the last week in the fat market. Things were looking decent for a bit, but I stayed spread anyhow, seeing how close to the 2008 low we were. Judgement day will soon be upon the fats, and it doesn't look like there is going to be a double...
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    meats

    Ugly technical action in the cattle. Just plain ugliness. The front month closed lower the December 5th low which doesn't bode well. Bulls should hope for a double bottom bounce. Bears will be pleased to see a close below the intraday low of 80.60, again, made on December 5th. Dollar index...
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    Will CDS spreads tumble in February?

    Steep drops in these fear indicators are bullish for equities.
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    meats

    Well tuesday was interesting across all of the markets, to include the meats. The cash trade last week in the fed cattle market was at 84.50, and an average of the historical February basis would price the futures at around a buck higher at 85.50. Arbitrage opportunity?? We'll see how the cash...
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    meats

    Hey Rtrader, I just wanted to post a very interesting chart of the Feb Live cattle contract. What I did was I took a snippit of the current price action we've been in, over the past couple of weeks, flipped it upside down, and overlayed it on the cattle top of last summer......they look...
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    meats

    No problem man. I got into the fat spread early, as I just started trading the meats, so I was figting the golman roll for a little bit, but once the roll stopped, it all worked out. It's amazing how much an index roll like that can distort these smaller markets. It was just like everything...
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    Buffett says US in 'economic Pearl Harbor'

    You think buffet is really that stupid? He is a huge philanthropist, and the govt. probably approached him when things looked the bleakest in order to soothe the markets. He gets to give money to shore up the US financial system (the system that he owes his success to), and he starts his media...
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    Israel is using Force Protection vehicles to roll into Gaza time to buy FRPT

    bingo! In order for the Gaza conflict to be the driver behind FRPT, Iz would've had to place a significant sized order for the MRAP's, and that wouldn't be too likely for a country the size of Iz, unless they lost all of their MRAP's in the Gaza invasion, and I don't think Hamas has got the...
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    What are we going to do about speculation keeping oil prices down?

    And the truth shall set us free! Good to see someone with some real insight here. It's economic warfare on these ridiculous, radical, oil-producing nations. Let 'em burn. I would rather pay for $90 crude than see Makmoud and Hugo grease their palms with our money.
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    Morgan Stanley Said to Seek Supertanker to Store Oil

    Amen. I think that this is a great plan, really, and it will actually get returns, unlike jamming tarp funds into the abyss that is/are MBS's and CDO's
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    MBA/business students wasting time/$$$

    Anyone that tries to talk someone out of furthering their education is probably "unedumacated thumselves". Thanks for the bad tip.
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    meats

    Platinum/Gold spread is kinda wide, and aching to come back in. Sell the white, buy the yellow, make the green. Aug/Feb Fat Cattle looking to be the same way, especially now that the golden roll is winding way down. Both are at relative statistical extremes, if you care about that...
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    Short Satyam Adr - Ramlinga Raju (chairman) Resignes With Biggest Scam In Indian Corp

    He's the Hindi version of Madoff. Bollywood must tell this compelling story with song and dance.
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    The market is not random

    Here's a great one, a Renko crude chart. This chart is the tale of 2008.
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    The market is not random

    Or maybe it's just because you posted a Renko chart that showed an uptrend, and thus had a couple of long consecutive up legs. Trending Renko charts are a hot mess. To see the yin to your chart's yang, see the attachment.
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    Oil is surging ..15% rally from lows

    US govt starting to refill SPR after stopping this past summer. We now have our baseline of buying back in the oil mkt no matter how bearish or bullish the fundamental data. Dollar index was up +1% today, and crude rallies a couple of points in spite of this. Crude will be the tide that...
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    Israel is using Force Protection vehicles to roll into Gaza time to buy FRPT

    The only reason that Force Pro would have a sustainable run up in stock price due to this confilict is if Palestine destroyed mass amounts of the Israeli MRAPs. Israel would then need to place more orders for MRAPs, and Force Pro might get a bump in price, but if they fail to deliver on time...
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    Vix

    Keep in mind that the VIX at $48 projects an overall market movement of around 14% this month....let's just keep that in mind, and also the fact that we are on an expiration Friday. The last time the VIX acted like this (very weak on a lower market) on the end of an expiration week, Monday was...
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    academics and efficient markets

    I agree, random walk is a poor assumption. The markets are not random, but they are much more unpredictable than we like to think. That is why trillions of dollars are lost over the course of a few days (Oct 2008), because of the traditional risk metrics are just wrong. The thing is, you...
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