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Hi, Anything less than a couple years of solid returns is not enough of a track record to handle OPM (other peoples' money) in my opinion. The market has a way of lulling traders into finding something that works, only to have it all taken away when a big tail comes along. It's easy to...

Yes, very good. We'll see of $usd decides to end 1 of 5 inside (3) under$80, then retrace back to $75ish for 2, then explode, to everyone's shock and amazement (except the large traderz who have been accumulating.....) Wave 3 is the only one worth averaging down for. :D :D :D

The Sperandeo Trend Method annotated on the recent price chart. The rules: 1. Trend line under lowest lows from start to present, without going through any 2. Lows that touch trend line are stop points (similar to the Bombardier Method) :D 3. Once stopped out, reverse signal...

That he's run out of good ideas, and wants yours. He'll keep it between the two of you. :D Here's my idea: Wave 3 or C is the only elliot wave worth trading. Everything else is just trend following.

Many of the entries in this system require an overnight move, so using on 23.5 hour ES data would give a different result. It was developed on SPY. I've thought about that problem and would probably just redesign it for ES, if that were my instrument of choice. The reason I post is because...

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I've played with OTM calls and puts for outright leverage. The time decay and volatility issues pointed out are valid, and your biggest enemy. A similar yet lower risk leveraged position can be taken by ITM calls / puts with low time to expiry (~1 mo). This puts the price way up on the...

Yes, perhaps. One of the problems with Dow theory is its inability to know if you are seeing a real trend change or an in-trend correction. Your question exposes this problem. I don't know the answer. :D I eventually gave up on TA and just coded a very primitive trend following algo...

+++ The market changes with respect to your system's performance because speculators, seeking the same as you, keep changing their own strategies when they wear out. Their behavior makes up much of the market's behavior. Take comfort in the Japanese manufacturing model of continuous...

Plenty of engineering jobs out there. Sure it's only $60k but the locations are usually cheap. But I don't know if a finance type could handle engineering school. It's just a touch harder......

1. bench the system and paper trade it 2. redesign it going further back and test it on out of sample data (sometimes referred to "walk forward" testing) 3. ALL systems are curve fits.......... you can't calculate the future, ever.

Very good thread here. This illustrates what Intradaybill kept preaching - that you can never, ever know the odds until after the trades are tallied. "Path dependent", he kept saying. This is where PHd mathematicians claim "the market shouldn't have done that" because it didn't match...

I would be very happy to get .01x the ATR with an 85% win rate at 1-R, every day. I would retire.

A few of us (Madhedgefundtrader.com being another) spotted the end of the move using elliot wave, momentum, and fundamental analysis. I continued trying to trade my trend pullback system, however, and ended up having an experience like yours. :) Solution: develop a system that makes money...

The market topped right before that time. A volatile sideways market began. A system that works well in a bull market may not work as well in a volatile sideways market. Solution: learn how to gauge the general market conditions and switch off this particular system when conditions are...

Even classic momentum analysis, taken from a tech analysis textbook, agrees with the signals herein:

I just rang my cash register

Victor Sperandeo had some interesting words about how he defined a trend line and breakout in New Market Wizards. It was basically the same as Dow theory without the cross-market confirmation, but with a trend line added. First lower high marks the breakout, subsequent reaction up to the...

I don't "look inside bar" to the tick level, just to the nearest minute so there is some error in the results. Let's take this to PM. :)

The simulation returns about 4x more with "look inside bar" turned off. You are seeing my detuned system with very conservative settingz........ :D