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Taking a short position here is very close ti the point where you are throwing money away.

I have to agree with waggie 945. The VIX is just a whisker away from a multi-year low(15.50).Sentiment is 66% bullish.Institutional,fund,401k,and tax return revenue should keep the major indexes, at very least,stable for the first quarter. At the end of the second quarter,military spending is...

Perception is currently pushing the major indexes higher.Bullish sentiment is 66% and doesnt show any signs of weakening in the near term.Until that bullish sentiment subsides ,shorting to the extreme could be elevating your risk level to the extreme.Throw out the technical and historical...

Better said Nitro.Example,the major indexes are overdue for a correction,but I wouldn't be trying to short them here because the money supply is currently unfettered.No matter the overvaluations my data suggests,no matter how high institutional investors push the indexes,and throw historical...

I avoid trades like that by adhering to one simple rule.Dont trade on what SHOULD be happening, trade on what IS happening.Especially now, when very few things about the market make sense.Similarities are reminding me of late '99.

You could be right again and I might be too conservative on my mid term outlook.The wild card here are the institutional and retail investors.Considering how they've pushed up the major index averages,the amount of liquidity flowing into the markets,a weakening dollar senario and the...

I agree with you Rodden.I do believe that that we will test the 400 level and perhaps lower.I've been charting gold and the gold index for two years.Thats the reason I'm convinced the gold index will peak on friday Jan.23,04.You could set your watch to the 4 month cycle of the index.However,over...

You are correct Mecro. the current growth is being financed in large part,(75-80%)with borrowed money.How long the fed will continue on its current path, no matter how detrimental to the dollar,is anyones guess.As far as inflation is concerned, anyone who pays the household bills,knows that low...

Over the next 7 weeks,the gold index(XAU)will move up and peak on Jan 23,04.I think gold may test its '96 high of $421,but would not be surprized to see gold pushed to $440-450 by Jan.23.In the following 2 to 4 weeks I'm looking for a consolidation period .If the dollar is still falling by...

Hey people, would I be out of line saying, that the people who are in th 10% or less category, should consider alternative investment vehicles. It seems to me there have been plenty of opportunities this year .

whoops.sorry Babak.I did'nt mean to leave you hanging .Its not a prediction, it would only be a repeat of history.In '96 , when gold was $420,BGO rose from $2 to just under $10 as the metal rose from the mid $300 range.BGO now has substantially more interests and income.CDE reached a high of...

Before April, Kudlow and Cramer had called the bottom eight and five times respectively,being incorrect for three plus years.I still have a vivid memory of Cramer on CNBC ,saying we own it at$160,at$140, and buying more today at $130.He was referring to AOL.Quite frankly, I dont find them very...

Gold keeps beating its head against the $400 ceiling.Gold behaved similarly when gold was in the $315 to $330 range.It would 'nt surprise me to see gold rangebound for a couple months ,between $380 and $400.Eventually ,gold should breach that barrier also,before moving higher. How high ,is...

Yes ,stocks are what I'm referring to.Currently the only gold stocks that are'nt moving are South African ADR's like DROOY and GFI because the appreciating Rand has a direct negative effect on the earnings of those companies.

Ignore the COT report and pay more attention to the trend.If gold breaches the $400 level and stays there,stocks will double from here and then some.When you're kicking yourself for not getting involved,you'll see how wrong you were.Just in case,BGO,EGO,CDE,CBJ,WHT,NXG and GBN.

I dont usually agree with you citizen, but in this case you might be right and then some.If the fed maintains its current coarse ,in regaurds to monetary and fiscal stimulous, a more than generous portion of that capital will wind up in the major markets and the housing sector.The only problem I...

To this point ,the bulk of the momentum in the precious metals sector has been generated by mutual funds as a hedge to counter potential losses by a depreciating dollar and dollar denominated assets.Considering the abundent supply of cheap cash,the feds willingness to increase and continually...

Sorry I'm not more help with the futures . The 2 sites I visit most often are kitco.com and the goldsheet mining directory.com.The only recent news was the meeting to discuss the current agreement and its extention of cb's not to sell their remaining gold until a specified date inthe...

If your into the futures , you need to keep an eye on foreign central banks and their currencys .They have a way of blindsiding you when you least expect it.At the beginning of this year the short position on gold was huge.If called for delivery on expiration,it would take two years of gold...

The second quarter of this year the gdp was 3.7%( or close to it),and was 70% military spending.In the first week of June ,morgage rates hit their lows and refinancing went through the roof.The morgage refinance index peaked at 9900 and change.This unleashed an instant mountain of disposable...