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It is a good question, but sort of like asking what ingredients you should use to cook a meal. The first thing to do is decide what kind of trading you want to do-- timeframe and methodology. Once you do that, you will be able to pick out a timeframe that suits you.

What is your estimate for the probability to reach 29.50 before it reaches 24.? Also, is there any exit before it reaches the target or stop, depending on the price behavior in the meantime?

You've hit on the problem right there, Buy1Sell2--- these people are not looking to increase the probability of a better entry/exit. They have never thought of such a thing, even less about how to measure it. Most are not morons, but rather, stuck conceptually at "input trading methodology...

Interesting. When was the last time there was a divergence for so long, and then all the sudden the breadth is there... and what happened after that??

One day when you are bored try a statistical analysis of risk/reward shorting stocks trading around their all-time highs vs. stocks trading around their all-time lows.

"Picks and shovels to gold miners"... why not, right?

The R is from last Thursday. There was a bit of volume traded in 13550-13600 then, and pretty much all this week the price was underneath. There was another dynamic taking place at the same time today-- breaking out above Tues & Weds high. Even with the relatively large amount of trading...

I never, ever, blew out my poker account. However, in my first two years of trading I blew out my account twice. When I go on tilt in poker, I might do something stupid in that tournament or session but I can walk away from it and come back the next day recomposed. In those first couple years...

Most important is to find a way to evaluate entries without taking into considering the closing transaction. Compare those entries with random entries. I scatterplot MFE against MAE from entry time to the end of the day for day trades (end of the week or month for swing trades). Once you find...

Now to get completely off topic, an important step for me was to stop testing by formulating a complete strategy and seeing the ending +/- $. A modular approach is better. (1) If you put a pro and newb in separate rooms, and give them the same entries, the pro will make money and the newb will...

random trend notes -- Define what a good entry means for you -- Define your trading time frame -- Define your trend -- See if following your trend makes your entries "gooder" than not following your trend, or random entries People are continually arguing about trends and their value...

For the record, I thought the original post was a joke, and I thought it was funny.

Demoted??? Rather, promoted!!!

That was some mean ass drop today. There is quite a bit of volume 123-125, lot of folks caught with their pants down. As a rule I don't short stocks trading around all time highs. And when I break this rule, I always get uncomfortable and swear not to do it again. Such is life.

Well my friend, just keep it in the same place and do some good research with *your* charts.

MAs and other trendlines are cute appliances. Price and previous price levels are the root. You can use the appliances to make money, but more effective (and more fun, IMO) is to use the root. Spend a week looking at Google stock msg boards. All the masses care about is the price. They get...

Demand is greater than supply?

Curiously, there are no small losing days, only big ones, and mostly small winning days, but nothing bigger than the biggest losses. It makes me wonder if the risk / reward is out of wack, as in not only letting losers run but also not letting winners run. I caution that "letting winners run"...

If you post the points won/lost and sizes of the trades I could probably tell you if something was wrong or not.

I will fix this later and reopen the thread after I do so