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i understand what you mean. what i was saying is that i am imagining a monte carlo simulation, starting from today, with 1000 runs. in 1 run, if the market is down 20% down in 2 years, of courtse the put will make money. however, what is the probability of the market going down 20% in 2 year...

i thought it was buy high sell low :D

the important thing here is getting the degree. whether it pertains to what you want to do - you can spin it when you are doing on campus recruiting

if the put is priced correctly (ie, fat tails, volatility smile, etc) then the price of the put is the expected payoff of the put at expiration in many scenarios. therefore, if the price of the put is indeed the expected payoff of the put, then if you do this over and over, you are not...

not the traditional definition of a scalper.... also, that's why research reports are almost always useless. too much conflict of interest.

dude, never knew being a guru can be so profitable.

why do people always concentrate on the dollar amounts. it misleads. if you earn $500 by risking $1m, then the return really sucks. Might as well put the money into a bond. if you earn $500 by risking $5000, that is a great return. focusing on the dollar amount neglects the amount...

its never over until the fat lady sings

LOL :D

if you go into prop trading, it is hard to get into an i-bank. without a degree, it is impossible.

yes. what field in science?

here we go again trading vs gambling. it depends on the meaning of gambling. to some people, it is literally what it is: putting money in a bet that is statistically against you. but mom and pops think gambling in terms of connotations: people throwing money away. and some others...

the main problem with TA is that many off the shelf "indicators" were formulated by people that are not sophsiticated in stats, prob, etc. I have to agree with point 2, though. At the intersection of the demand and supply curves is the equilibrium. Therefore, the price at any given...

looks like wealth-lab output. the only thing is that ETFs are hard to borrow, and hence short.

actually, after reading his post i would have to disagree. his research looks very much like baynesian prob. nice

surfer, since you are believe so strongly there are no such things as trends, how do you trade and what? also, im' interested to hear why you think there are no trends as applied to crude oil. surely, a macro increase in demand in oil will drive prices up.... or is this just an illusion...

in my opinion, CMT and CFA do not really go together. CFA is traditionally for sell side or buy side equity research or portfolio managers. CMT is for trading. The CFA crowd will look at you funny becuase they are fundamental analysis based. the CMT crowd will look at your cfa and say what...

Fair, but maybe you should include some element of stochastic volatility like some model of volatility like GARCH, etc.

Yes, price persistance exists. simply do a lag 1 regression. further, back to the coin flipping example. it is helpful to think of it in bayesian prob. take a large sample of coin flips. what is the prob of a flipping a head, given the previous 5 flips are heads? if the prob is greater...

That is actually very interesting. I might program something to screw with those other programs. ahahha