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Oct. 4, 2010 Analysis: Friday's Analysis predicted that "the market will attempt to stay below 1,131 before rallying." Today the market did drop below 1,132 before bouncing off the support to settle lower. It is a matter of time before the market breaches the support and closes below...

nfamousyoungest, Thank you for your question. The event that causes the dollar weakness directly affects the S&P 500 index, rather than the resulting weak dollar in turn affects the market. For example, the Fed's increasing money supply positively affects the market and also causes the...

Oct. 1, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "a negatively surprising [ISM] reading tomorrow will further reinforce 1,150 as the near-term market top." Today the market opened higher to push towards 1,150, but the slightly disappointing ISM manufacturing index put a top to...

Optionpro007, Thank you for your question. You got me this time! I have to confess that I "plagiarized" this phrase from a financial news article, as you can see it appear in quotation marks. I can only surmise that it means that since few people had expected a market rally of this...

Sept. 30, 2010 Analysis: On Sept. 27 the Analysis predicted that "the market has found its short-term top at 1,150." Today all economic statistics came in better than the consensus, especially the Chicago PMI exceeding the consensus by a large margin. The market broke through the...

Sept. 29, 2010 Anaylsis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that today "will be a day of consolidation in the 1,131-1,150 range," and today the market did trade in a relatively narrow range. Looking ahead to tomorrow, barring a significant positive surprise of the final Q2 GDP, the Chicago...

Sept. 28, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Consumer Sentiment will be lower than the consensus," and today it came in much lower than the consensus. The market sold off on the news until it hit the support at 1,131 and then bounced to resistance at 1,150 before...

Sept. 27, 2010 Analysis: Today the fact that the market did not take out the 1,150 resistance is a surprise, given the backdrop of Unilever's acquisition of Alberto-Culver and Southwest's offer for AirTran, and to say that the failure of M&T Bank's merger with Santander outweighs the...

Sept. 24, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "unless the market can immediately reverse itself tomorrow to close above 1,131, the Bears will be emboldened and become very aggressive in attempts to push the market below 1,088." Today the Bears did not give the Bulls that...

Yes. I did. Dr. Chen

joe4422, Thank you for your question. I take losses when I am convinced that I am wrong, and that has led to significant losses in the past. Dr. Chen

Algo_Design_Kid, Thank you for your question. One never rejoices at seeing his profit turning into a loss, and I am not an exception. Dr. Chen :)

Sept. 23, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Initial Jobless Claims will stay above 450,000," and they came in as 465,000. The market opened lowered and bounced off the Leading Economic Index and Existing Home Sales. The former is an abstract number that is...

Sept. 22, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "as the market continues to digest the Fed Announcement along with these data, it will sell off by the end of the day." Today the market did close lower, although one could argue that such a prediction always has a 50% chance of...

Sept. 21, 2010 Analysis: Today's Fed Announcement contains no surprise, and the market shot up briefly before settling lower. The Fed Announcement offers no sanguine picture of the economy but hints that the economy has veered towards the wrong track -- an inflation rate that is so low...

Optionpro007, Thank you for your question. From the structure of your sentence I discern that you view the current market as a bear market, hence the "bear market rally." I disagree. I view the market as a sideway market. Once I clarify my view, the answer to your question becomes clear...

Sept. 20, 2010 Analysis: Friday's Analysis predicted that "the PIGS saga will continue out of Europe," and it did, as the spread of the Irish bond over the Bund surged to a record today. But Europe's financial woes were no concern to the market, at least today, as the market rose to a...

Sept. 17, 2010 Analysis: On Sept. 11 I responded to Wittgenstein that "overseas economic statistics will have more bearing on the overnight session than on the pit session for the S&P 500 Futures contracts." The futures contract rose to as high as 1,132 overnight but did not trade even...

Sept. 16, 2010 Analysis: Yesterday's Analysis predicted that "the Philadelphia Fed Survey will bring no positive surprise. This will give the market the reason to take profit and close lower." Today the Survey came in negative, and the market spent most of the day in the negative territory...

Sept. 15, 2010 Analysis: Today both the Empire State Survey and the Industrial Production came in line with consensus, and the market rode on its momentum to close higher. Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Initial Jobless Claims will surprise on the higher side to above 460,000, as they make...