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You know, really, the Dec is not exactly what I call "illiquid" anyway, unless your only standard of comparison is Sept. Throughout the day today (Thursday) the spread looked like 1/64 each time I looked, in good size on both sides of the quote. OldTrader

If you're long and short the same market, you have no position. Fractal or no fractal! Did I miss something? OldTrader

Just one more comment: I would stop making statements of the type above relative to 'not being a good trader'. Frankly, this is not a very empowering type of statement. Perhaps you're just a relatively new trader. Therefore, you have alot of learning ahead of you. None of us learn this...

I doubt there is any combination of stops versus targets that would give you a real edge. Perhaps though TGregg would chime in on this. Where the edge comes from in my mind is a superior entry, with a wide enough stop that 'noise' will not stop you out 'most of the time'. Personally, I...

Sorry to hear you missed it. I thought the plan was to take a 5 point profit? OldTrader

No, I was not referencing your study. I doubt if there is any study on missed trades. But I suppose you know that the study you conducted is not a study of Random Traders method? Random Trader has a 'bias' as I understand it. What you studied would actually reverse trades. Random Trader...

In your case, a "good trade" makes you $250. So if we assume that every "missed" trade would have been a good trade, you would have to have 4 "missed" trades, all of which would have been good trades, to equal just one bad trade. The problem is why are we assuming that a "missed" trade is...

Sorry, I misspoke. A good trade makes you $250 (5 points) not the $400 I mentioned. OldTrader

Where in your original quote did you even remotely mention statistics or probability? You did not mention that the probability of a missed trade succeeding was higher than the probability of a bad trade occurring. What you said was that "missed trades cost you more than bad trades". Evidently...

In your case a bad trade costs you a minimum of $1000. Mininum because you do not use a hard stop. A good trade makes $400. So in your case a bad trade ALWAYS costs you more than a missed trade. But the problem at the heart of your method is exactly the undertone expressed here. You set a...

Years ago I started buying rental property. Mostly single family homes and small apartment buildings. At the same time I rehabbed some properties and resold them. The real estate to me was a business. When I first started I was just trying to create an income, I was not counting on...

Yes, I hold overnight positions at times, but only when they are in the direction of the trend. In terms of gaps, if one gaps over my stop loss I typically close out my position. I don't hold hoping it will come back. The other possibilities really are too numerous to discuss. Gaps in...

My assessment of the trend as of this AM was that the trend was up. Does it affect how I play it? Yes. The way I play it is I take profits on a large gap typically. Normally I don't short it against the trend under the circumstances we had this AM. So this AM I came in long some stocks...

Let's say the market opens at 1012, just as it did today. You ignore this because it's "spike". Now we head up (instead of down), and take the highs out at 1015, triggering stops resting just above the highs. This punchs it a quick 5 more points to 1020. This all happens in the first 30-60...

We definitely don't seem to be communicating. You say you won't cover on a "spike". So the bottom line is that IF it "spikes", breaks out, and continues, you have not covered with a 20 point stop. You say you can take 100 points, even 200 points (20% move such as 1987). So it doesn't sound...

The larger point is not whether you can "take" a 100 point move against you. The point is whether you can take a 100 point move, and then come back with your 8 point profits at a time. The question really is whether this "style" makes any sense at all. And clearly, because of the leverage...

First, a comment on Random Trader's "style". This is a style that can only lose in the end in my opinion. Many times the market makes significant moves on a dramatic news event of some type. So if your rule is not to close a position in such an event, in the end a day will come when they take...

So IF this INTC news causes a gap, which then leads to a breakout to new highs (around the 1015 area), you would not cover your short under those circumstances since this would all fit within the guise of "sudden move caused by news"? OldTrader

Define "spike". OldTrader