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Is this just in trading or the rest of your life as well?

The numbers may have changed but pushing that dynamic as economic policy has not. That's what they're banking on for the recovery, that Americans will start to believe that the economy is turning around and they'll start spending like drunken sailors again...

You truly think that there was no marketing at all to persuade the American consumer to spend spend spend? People are encouraged to spend and rack up credit card bills. Do you think it's in the interest of CC companies for everyone to pay their bill in whole every month or carry a balance over...

A corporate welfare check from uncle sam in the face of imbending blow up does not count as risk management. Though, I'd like to be able to rely on that kind of risk management. I'd be far more willing to take big risks if I had that backing. Yes, I'm sure IBs will learn from their mistakes this...

By far the ugliest people in all of Europe. Every time I've been to the UK I think every ugly American must have some UK heritage.

Please accept my apologies.

Seems like they're talking about naked shorting of equities, not naked writing of options, which is illegal.

Isn't that an ad hominem attack? Isn't it the substance of a person's argument that one should judge. I treat it with just as much skepticism as anything I read on a forum.

Note his comments about which forums he finds useful: "While I don't post on them, fattail.org, nuclearphynance, and wilmott forums have a good audience. There's also a few gems at elitetrader, but I don't think there's more than a couple of guys who are making money and they don't post often."

They post when they make money, don't post when they lose so it seems as if everyone is making money (or they lie). If you go to any forum dedicated to working on cars it will seem like any car, no matter how reliable it is known to be is a piece of junk because people only post when they...

One other thing no one mentioned is using common sense. Stay away from porn/warez sites from russia, china etc. Don't open any old torrent, email, etc. If it seems fishy, stay away. It's not worth it to nuke your computer for some free porn or software. The few times that I do get tricked...

Dunno, I read it and he sounds legit (from what little I know). Books he recommended, what little elaboration he gave on strategies, attitude towards the work all sound appropriate and non amature/guru-ish. Even his (what I feel is) underappreciation for risk, relience on stats sounds legit...

Yeah pretty much, but what else is there? Seems like the better analysis compared to making an outright directional prediction (guess).

Makes sense to me (kind of). I think the market could go either way. If the drop was expected (able to be predicted) it would not happen. Logically, an extreme price move has to be unexpected (by the majority of the money) for it to occur or you'd have traders trying to take advantage of it and...

Yes, you've perfectly characterized the go back to Kenya crowd... Rational and unbiased..

You guys need a dictionary. Find out what socialism and communism mean before misappropriating the terms. Clearly if anything we are closer to fascism. Obama, like any president republican or democrat is meaningless. Party squabbling is not helpful, and in fact only serves the purposes of those...

Opened an account with 4k, doubled it in about a month and then promptly blew up. Realized I had a lucky streak, new next to nothing about trading, much of what I did know was the same BS everyone relies on, and I had no concrete money management rules or strategy. I then decided it was best to...

I do actually have that thread bookmarked for your discussion with Swan, and I plan on reading back through your post history. I've found that the best way to learn anything on this forum. Read back through the history of those who seem credible until you find something that is either helpful or...

Care to give any clues, beyond "fat tails", etc? That's an honest question from someone searching for the right direction(s) to pursue.

Very true, I can't argue with that. But, as I said there's nothing random to those manipulating the markets. And it does seem that there are scalpers/tape readers out there who can pick up on these moves often enough to earn a living, or maybe they are just being "fooled by randomness" for an...