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  1. wintergasp

    is trading oil just trading the dollar

    The thing is, that's not very correlated. If you take out the July-2016 > Dec-2016 period, it doesn't strike as very correlated. IMHO
  2. wintergasp

    Germany’s BaFin mulls banning margin forex and binary options trading

    My point is, if you want to regulate a market so that it's being tradable as a market and not a casino, 7:1 should be more than ample.... because serious people don't treat it as a casino and they very very rarely use more than that.
  3. wintergasp

    Germany’s BaFin mulls banning margin forex and binary options trading

    Max leverage of 7:1. I've never seen serious money being run with more leverage than this.
  4. wintergasp

    is trading oil just trading the dollar

    And the real FX market is much less than 5T, it's more 500B to 1T per day, the rest is just back to back swaps, not really traded volume. You can aggregate the volume of a few venues like Currenex, FXAll, Integral, CFH, Fastmatch etc. and you'll see it's not as big as the media claims
  5. wintergasp

    is trading oil just trading the dollar

    I know it was a joke. To answer your question, no trading Oil is not just trading USD. Your chart is a spurious correlation. http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
  6. wintergasp

    is trading oil just trading the dollar

    or...... is trading the dollar just trading oil ;)
  7. wintergasp

    Germany’s BaFin mulls banning margin forex and binary options trading

    Is that because we've never seen a hedge fund, let along a FX retail trader, make money consistently over a few years on FX or "binary options" whereas plenty have suceeded in futures, stocks etc. ? Or is it because it's an OTC market that is not centralized and loosely regulated ?
  8. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    Entropy is a numerical measure in communication theory. It is a indication as to the amount of noise that you can find in a data serie. When designing a systematic trading approach, it is interesting to have an idea of the "randomness" of your market, this later on helps you determine whether...
  9. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    My friend. I manage a book of 500m$ on commodity options. Entropy is a technical issue you can't solve, it's just the way the market move. This has nothing to do with being a winner or a loser.
  10. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    Those numbers and this chart is not possible, there is a minimum of entropy in any market that's impossible to avoid either your results are fake or you're going to blow up.
  11. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    Man this one is much better than yours, look at the chart after a few minuts that the guy shows, it's making much more money than you...
  12. wintergasp

    Trading as a first career.

    I'm being curious, what's your personal work experience / position to say this & where did you work ? I manage a book of risk worth more than 500m$ and I don't feel any of the things you mentioned, but this is probably very dependent on the company / geographic location / position in the company.
  13. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    @Trading Education Buyer I have a better trading strategy, buy gold, much much better than your curve
  14. wintergasp

    The consequences of giving away the holy grail

    Stop "including 2008" in your backtest, 2008 was a good year for every systematic fund manager ever. - What's your average trade profit ? - what are the execution cost / slippage assumptions in the backtest ? - what was your fitting period ? in-sample / out-of-sample data ? Regards
  15. wintergasp

    Och-Ziff fined for bribery in Africa

    This was news 5 years ago, way before this was in the News.
  16. wintergasp

    British Pound ?

    It's bad for the UK people. It's good for the rich non-dom and hedge fund managers, essentially being paid in USD while everything is 20% cheaper. My flat used to be 1250£ / week it's not 1050 £ /week so roughly 30% cheaper in USD terms, overnight.... You may see positive fundamentals coming...
  17. wintergasp

    Mirror trades, Russia, Money Laundering, Rogue Trader

    My understanding of the russian currency issue is that the central bank of russia needs to approve any money that leaves the country. That also applies to banks. So Deutsche need to tell the central bank "we have a linked account that's selling for 10m$ and that's why we need to transfer 10m$ of...
  18. wintergasp

    Trading as a first career.

    Maybe PM me your CV and I can give you a few advises. Getting into the hedge fund circle is very tough but once you're in, you're in.
  19. wintergasp

    daily ranges

    Historically I believe GBPJPY has always been moving a bit more. I'm curious as to how that will help you ?
  20. wintergasp

    ETF fees newbie question

    Hmmmmm did you compare the bid/offers and live price between the ETFs and the underlying asset? For example when I look at the Cocoa ETF, the spread is always wider than what we see on futures.
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