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@Magic You've hit the nail on the head. I didn't come in asking for feedback (I re-read my opening posts), and I had decided already what my experiment would look like, and I did just want to publish/showcase it publicly, to put my money where my mouth was as it were. But not to say, "Oh look...

@Magic This will elicit howls of derision, but I'll say it anyway: I don't think anything about the values of the strangles. I've observed that selling strangles on high-IV stocks out at 10 to 20-delta is profitable. Period. Maybe that's because volatility tends to revert to the mean (a...

@JSOP I don't try to predict stock price direction. I trend-follow though, and APPS does look like it's trending up. That would've been visible yesterday morning when I placed the trade, if I had looked at the chart. But I don't, not at this stage in my testing. I HAVE recognized though that I...

@tsznecki Yes, real money. If it was paper money it would show "Simulated Trading" in the upper-left corner, like this screenshot from my first journal that was using paper money:

Day 2 Update Tuesday, 8/24 A bad day, down 9% from EOD yesterday: And they still haven't credited me the Option BP from the 5k I deposited over the weekend, so no new trades today (and I'm really only about half invested margin-wise). PDD was the cause of today's big drop. @JSOP yesterday...

Thanks for this great advice. Obviously I don't understand most of it, but I'll study in the directions you pointed out. I think what you said about stocks not actually following a Gaussian/Normal distribution is probably pure gold. And that broker systems use Normal distribution. I've...

JSOP, Thank you for taking the time to research and lay out that GME hypothetical trade, now I understand what you meant earlier about "scenario analysis." I've actually done some of that with the ToS "OnDemand" feature. And you're right, I HAD already seen that in my paper trading, with AMC...

Wow, thank you for all that! Maybe it's confirmation bias because I'm hearing what I want to hear, but finally I've found someone who seems to really be doing short strangles. Are they MOST of what you do with options, or something less? Not that it matters really, as long as you've found...

qlai, welcome to the thread, and I'm glad you'll be following along. Have you ever concentrated just on strangles? I saw that quote at the end of the article too and thought, "Well wtf!?" I'd started the article thinking the author was against short volatility, but maybe that was just a...

Day 1 Update Monday, 8/23/21 Off to a great start, lost $27 AND negative margin! The margin I'm not worried about, they just haven't credited me the margin yet for the 5k I put in over the weekend. The 27Aug APPS 45P/52.5C trade went in at 0.90, Sunday's Nat price. BPE was 614, so I call...

MrMuppet, thanks for that article, very interesting. Also for your own words on the matter, from which I learned that I'll need to be mindful about scaling this up, going "all-in" if you will, and blowing up like the 30+ people you know of. But I'd like to quote you and the article to point...

To all, thank you for your feedback, sincerely. It correlates with a lot of the advice I got in my first journal (which I don't think any of you were on), but a new point or two was also raised. I'll be happy to engage in discussions throughout the course of this experiment, but mainly: Let's...

I actually started trading this account on 8/12/21, and added some cash this weekend so it starts at about 10k NetLiq: It comes into this week with these open trades: AMD (3) 17Sep long 190 calls, currently valued at 0.015 each. If AMD turns around and those become worth something, I'll...

Ground rules: TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim REAL MONEY margin account. Log end-of-day balances. Measure drawdowns best-EOD to worst-EOD. Stocks will be high-IV, >$5, >2 million shares avg. volume, and have weekly options. Only selling short strangles (sell a Put and a Call in the same...

Hi all. I came here to Elite Trader on July 16, 2021 and started a new trade journal about selling short strangles at 10-delta (and also 20-delta). At the time I was trading PAPER MONEY (PM) in TD Ameritrade's (TDA) Thinkorswim (ToS) platform and getting mind-blowing results using mostly meme...

But delta generally IS accepted as a proxy for probability in the money. Wikipedia: "The (absolute value of) Delta is close to, but not identical with, the percent moneyness of an option, i.e., the implied probability that the option will expire in-the-money." OptionAlpha: "Delta can be used to...

I'm not an expert by any means, and in fact am just a neophyte, but I'd say in future to have more faith in delta. 5 delta is WAY out there, and implies about a 95% chance that AMZN wasn't going to hit 3120 by the close Friday. And as you said, it didn't. The low for the week looks to be...

Very nice, thanks for sharing. Do you recall about what the BP was on the AMZN trade? Maybe about 40k? If so you made about 1.4% on that trade in just 2 or 3 days (depending how early and late the trade went on and off). In real-money accounts I started Monday selling Cash Secured Puts at ≤...

For sure. Take advantage of the juiced premiums due to earnings coming up, but don't hold it THROUGH earnings. Let me/us know how it goes if you do.

Thanks for your support and encouragement. Are you going to try another AMZN strangle tomorrow?