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I dunno guys, I keep reading recession this, and recession that, I have with-held a lot of my spending just to be on the safe side (cancelled a holiday, put plans to build pool at house on hold). but here in southern california I see zero signs of recession so far.... my business revenue...

well gentlemen, best possible outcome for us is Bennie announces a surprise rate cut tuesday worst possible, well, the list is endless really most likely worst? that mortgage insurer goes bankrupt and the powers that be say nothing. Ouch.

I'm long at 1289 for you but in retrospect I dont think it was such a good idea doh

BTW im long at 1289 on the ES now call me insane or stupid I guess TP 1350

wow I dont normally stay up late, so I've never seen this before but then again, I doubt many people have seen ES futures down 4% before market is even open

you guys see how the stock markets and the 30 year have finally decoupled 30 year typically would be shooting up on a down market day like this

well anyways my logic is if there are big ass rate cuts, at some point inflation fears may temporarily resurface again bad for bonds :-) then a week later, here come recession fears again good for bonds :-) rinse and repeat for 2008 I hope, that would be cool, down up, down up, down up

you could be right but you do have to admit that both the SPX and USD have been beaten down badly already, specifically the dollar. The SPX isnt down that much (whatever, 15% give or take some).... but certainly we didnt just have a 44% runup... previous 12 months and you have to...

I can connect the dots, what I see is that US 2, 10 and 30 years are being bought up to obscene levels..... where is the flood of money leaving the US markets? I dont see it

I dont think so. 87 crash was at a time of extreme market optimism, the market had run up 44% in 9 months.... We have gone through 6 months of grinding now, with nothing but gloom and doom from every corner of every news outlet. We are already almost 20% off the highs.

lol everyone on this thread is a bond guru except for poor richard lol for the record im now short 21 ZB contracts, all the way from 114 and 16/32 to here sitting on 40 ZB march 119 calls this is my second elevator ride up.... lets hope it goes back down to 110 hehe

there we go now thats some panic kicking in today

pretty weird VIX hardly climbed at all today not sure what to read into this (if anything).... but its pretty strange. One potential explanation could be that this decline was expected. Therefore we won't bottom here until we get a stop run below 1350, to get some legitimate panic.

This is the most patient I have ever been on the internet, sigh I logged into this thread because never before have I seen so many people that need so much help.... agev, what is 43.9 + 53.9 answer, 97.8 what does that mean? its means there is a 97.8% chance of a 50 bps rate cut...

my math isn't off because those are the official numbers its not my math

odds are 43% - how does 43% = no way? if you are absolutely sure its not gonna be a 75 bps cut, margin your account to the max on the trade thats its not gonna be a 75bps cut.... but I bet you don't, I love people who talk in "no way" and "most likely" but never put one cent where their...

sigh the odds of a 25 bp rate cut according to the market is 1.4% right now.... 50 bps cut chance is 53.9% chance 75 bps cut is 43.9% chance 25 bps hike is 0.8% any more bad news events and that 75 bps cut chance is gonna climb even more

I just want to know what program you used to translate this that decided to use "paroxysmal"

well richard, you can hope that spike into high 118s was the top test I was talking about..... Other than that, prolly 122/123 next stop. I got hordes of shorts now, as my 119 MAR calls start coming into play.

dont do it