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True, you really don't have to look at this. But it does suggest that the next few weeks are not going to be boring.

Keep in mind, though, that two years of going sideways presents a lot of support.

I try to avoid could, should, would, if and focus on data instead: volume of advancers, volume of decliners, new lows (now), new highs (at "tops"). Volume of decliners has been slacking off but the volume of advancers has not yet gained the upper hand. New lows have also been tapering off...

Based on the intraday volume picture, there wasn't much buying interest at the end of the day, so a big bounce may not be in the picture. On the other hand, a continuation after a day like today isn't a lock, either. So, "never be in a hurry to do something stupid".

At this point, it may be wise to look at the bigger picture, particularly major S in the ES at 1250, and 11000 in the YM. It's also worth noting that the number of new lows in the NYSE has been declining since last Wednesday (not so with the Naz).

Incidentally, if you make notes on these trades, don't forget to note the R level at 66.5 from yesterday.

If you'd taken the short at 69.5, you'd have had to make a pretty fast turnaround. Would you psychologically been able to exit and reverse so quickly?

Hell of a long wait. Did you take the trade?

No, me neither. And it isn't as if traders can't decide what to do. It's as if they're not there. But this is a little early to be taking off for Memorial Day.

This is one of those days, though, when it pays to hang around, not only due to the tight range, but also to where the range is occurring. Anybody who can't see where the S/R are here should probably try something else :) I must confess, though, that I did run errands. If anything does...

This may be the time to point out that one size does not fit all, nor does it fit all the time. Since the bottom several years ago, I've traded nothing but retracements. However, since we've been sitting for six months now going nowhere, trading the trend no longer "works" for me. Nor...

Something else to look at is the "reversion to the mean" aspect of it. If, for example, you have two or three or more days of less-than-ADR, the probability of a break through S/R is that much higher (the origin of the NR4, NR7, NR9 business). Again, not a lock, but not a time to be sleeping...

For reference:

Something else to think about, if you want to, is the average daily range, which provides its own S/R apart from whatever the swing points are. It's not a lock, but I keep it in mind to keep myself from becoming overconfident. For example, the ADR for the ES is currently around 14. Applied to...

Well, for example, note how I've marked your chart: the two lateral S/R levels and the two minor consolidations. As for psychology, yes. Without it, no other means of determining S/R makes any sense, nor does it test out well enough. Which is why using Fib or MAs or TLs or some other form of...

I don't want to rain on your parade re the MAs. If they work for you, great. But think about looking to the left when you use them and you may be able to obtain a greater benefit from them.

I wasn't referring to anybody in particular with regard to over-trading. I was emphasizing a key principle behind what you're doing. One man's over-trading is another man's most profitable MO, but over-trading is nonetheless one of the most common causes of failure over time.

You made a point some time back that may have been missed and shouldn't be, which is that substantial profits are generally made by size rather than by logging in a great many trades, for various reasons, one of which is fatigue and its effects on judgement. This means, in part, that if one...

The market can tell you things as much by what it doesn't say as by what it does say. Given the very strong support at yesterday's lows in both the YM and ES, the pace should not be this slow, regardless of whether price moves or not. This may not be detectable without using a tick chart, but...

Missed the first. Took the second. The behavior this morning is really strange. The pace should be quicker given where we are, one reason why I let the first one go. But there may be more here.