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thx IV; to mystic - from the option spread graph, simulate a calendar at two adjacent strikes to evaluate the spread price over time. It basically widens the breakeven points at less overall r/r.

The Grail is conceding that you have a better chance of being lucky than skillful.

panzer, I know what you're saying, you're looking for the "optimal" strike price, considering the product of return * probability. However, the inherent pricing of the options themselves is based on the assumption that all options will have exactly the same expectancy. In other words there is no...

The ratio vertical spread is hurt by IV, the short butterfly is hurt by time passage, but the long time spread benefits from both. Short the very next expiring month, long the 90days+ option at the same strike. Go ATM or slightly OTM. You really make the money in the last 3 weeks so you...

Handsome - sorry about your illness - I am sure we will all try to help you - but trading is usuallly a losing game the first year if you are extremely talented - otherwise it's 2 years. Trading requires immense time and research - you'll need to read 50 books and make 500 trades and study...

To the poster: Get Natenberg's Option Volatility and Pricing, see page 452, 454 showing grids of how to pick the right strategies. Essentially, you can make a living using Time Spreads, Butterflies, Bull/Bear Butterflies, and Put/Call Backspreads IF you carefully quantify your risks using the...

Interesting to note that this spread stayed perfectly hedged all the way to 1292 futures (about 1290 SPX). I left it on and canceled the STP LMT on the long. A 1305 +/-10pt range would be nice. We'll see. +1 OCT ES 1305 C ($28.5, STP LMT at 24.00, 25.5 trigger) -1 AUG EW 1305 C (exp 8/31)...

Have any of you ever tried an aggressive ratio calendar spread? For example, with 10 days left, buying 3 backmonth longs, 2 current month shorts to keep DN and then scalping high theta. Could also sell the short at a different strike than the long to more closely match the deltas. At low IV this...

to all- I appreciate your replies. The spread description was precisely correct - it just did not fill perhaps for the reasons cited by ktm. many thx

Guilty on all counts! :D

"Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are...

Yes, prior to FOMC announcements, it has happened. The VIX coupled with equity-only put/call ratio are decent (but not perfect) at signalling potential reversals. Otherwise VIX is an indicator which actually lags SPX movement (by seconds); it is not reflective of instantaneous time...

I once broke through my office door with a head butt, does that count?

I wouldn't say it's pointless - just dangerous - and if you see this point then that's the point. I think it's much the same with stock backtesting - nothing quite like real-time experience. I would suggest observing the actual option price charts and chains at various strikes from 90 days to...

I know your pain...time like those I just wanna be a park ranger...

Trading does not wear me out, but I do.

Everything about this recent market tells me it's indicator proof. Disclaimer: what the fuck do I know. But I can just tell you my results: after a good ytd, Aug is in a 12% drawdown. Sure my inexperience, but a lot of randomness. Trades which previously met criteria for rare and high 80%+...

started an ES OTM Call Calendar spread today +1 OCT ES 1305 C ($28.5, STP LMT at 24.00, 25.5 trigger) -1 AUG EW 1305 C (exp 8/31) $7.5 (note ES futures about 2pts above SPX) Game Plan: Rangebound: With the EW exp on 8/31, there is good time decay with position theta=~+.3 Upside...

An ES spread with net spread b/a = 17.25/16.00. I went thru 16.25, 16.5, 17.00, still no fill. I got curious if the system is whacked so I changed the BUY LMT to 17.25 to the now 17.25/16.50 b/a, and still no fill for 5 min. I canceled the order and placed each leg separately, each...

if you're honest, start a biz. people do business with people they know, like, and trust. don't you?