Search results

I'm not sure what you're saying, turtle. are you saying long term trend up? As you say, WTI is still below the 200 day/10 month, so it's still in a historic downtrend. If you look at the chart I posted, most bottoms take a while, longer than the current bottom. We could see a retest of the...

Retail traders just double down, they don't get shaken out of a position because they don't use stops. Here is how a retail trader loses money. He martingales all the time, but always covers/sells too early, tend to lose more on losers than on winners, but he has a positive winning percentage...

I'm pretty bearish. Oil is in freefall, if oil goes lower it will take rest of market with it. Everyone says "we've put in a bottom in oil" but I'm afraid they're going to have something put in their bottom. HA!

now up to 6.25 shorts to longs

Another good one from same guy. Basically shale will keep a lid on prices. http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/podcasts/episodes/9-17-2015-jeff-currie.html

You speakee english?

They bought more on the second decline than the first. It will be interesting to see, if we get a third retest of the lows, whether they are still buying.

Look at this chart, the retail tradesr are buying at the bottoms and shorting at the tops. This is realtime data. Sentimentrader guy is using weeks old data that is a snapshot from a moment in time or is a survey. It's pretty useless.

This is good. He's predicting a price bouncing between $40 and $20 over the next six - nine months. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-02-09/goldman-s-currie-expects-oil-volatility-to-go-higher

Do you get enough leverage on USO? It moves so slowly I don't know why anybody would bother trading it.

Well that's only $4 from here. The historical price of oil is somewhere around $20, despite what many people are saying, it's not inconceivable it will get back there again. Are the Saudis really going to knife their competitors and not twist the blade? That doesn't really make sense. One...

Looking back to the 80s, oil bottoms tend to take a couple of months (this is a monthly chart). And the confirmation that it's a bottom is a break above the 10 month moving avg. The recent bottom failed to break above the 10 month ma at $41. The oil market is a two-tier market - most of the...

Most of the dividend is funded by debt. But you're right, there is tremendous ordinary investor interest in CVX. THere is an article almost every other day on Seeking Alpha about CVX, which is pretty incredible.

I've heard this same argument at least 50 times: the cost of the marginal producer is over $50, therefore the price of oil has to go up. Nevermind that oil has only traded at these levels for a few months. But the bulls argument is backwards. Price does not adjust to producers, producers adjust...

Chevron is coming on-line with a $5.5B LNG project in Australia just as nat gas prices are at historical lows around the world. Nevertheless, Chevron is near old highs. The chart looks ugly. Chevron investors are anticipating oil returning to the old prices. Not happening. And how does the...

Dailyfx traders have already trimmed their shorts to 4.35 of longs, down from 5.7. So as usual, they are covering too soon. But if we see sentiment extremes at tops, then we could have just seen a major top. Edit: "too soon" depends of course.

or you could play around with the address here, it's updated every thursday (sometimes friday) https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/spx500/2016/02/11/ssi_spx500.html

try the dailyfx twitter feed and pick your date

Retail traders tend to be right but tend to lose more on their losers and close out their winners too fast. Once this market goes down (if it does) you will see them close out their shorts far too quickly.

you can go over to the Dailyfx site, it's updated in real time. i think they actually got even more short . . . retail traders tend to be very stubborn and double down.