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Someone educate me if I'm wrong, but Aug FF is now trading at 95.05. As I understand it, the FF contract price is to equal the average FF rate for the month of the contract. Since we are already at the 15th of the month, and FF has been at 5.25 (meaning 94.75 on the contact), the fact that Aug...

In the last week, we've had a weak NFP report, the Fed stopped (or pause), a foiled terrorist attack, and a anemic stock market, yet interest rates (both long and short) moved higher. Does this mark the end of the summer bond rally?

Long 2 years = long 2 year notes (or 07/08 eurodollars)

Don't know what everyone here is smoking. The Fed is done for now. Whether the Fed is right or not, I don't know. However, they feel that the inflationary uptick is transitory due to high energy prices (see leak to Grep Ip in today's WSJ). They also know (and this is really not disputable)...

A homemade yen-carry trade is to sell short Yen currency forwards. Arbitrage theory tells us that forward currency rates are decided by interest rate differentials between countries. Selling short Yen forwards is the same as borrowing yen at 0% and investing it in short term US rates.

I really enjoyed his interview in New Market Wizards. Whatever became of him? Is he still active in the business?

It was announced this morning that Japan is lifting its US beef ban. I assume the markets knew this was coming as cattle has moved up 4-5 cents in the past week. Is this "buy the rumor, sell the fact" news or will cattle get more of a pop from this?

Check out these guys. They say they'll assume the risk of rising interest rates for anyone with an ARM. http://www.hedgecapitalgroup.com

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BA08C4FB4%2DBCF4%2D4BD5%2D8FCF%2D1A46C0FCFF08%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

Yes, a graph would be nice. This mortgage looks interesting.

^^^ Sound advice. If you're 100% sure the Fed is going to 5.25% on June 29, you want to be short July Fed Funds or Eurodollars or 2 years. Shorting bonds or notes would not be the way to play it. In fact, there is a pretty good chance that bonds would rally if the Fed goes this month. Of...

Not necessarily an option question, but how does one figure out or find out the dollar value of a basis point for the 10 year TNote future.

What is a "strangle" and why does it have anything to do w/a curve steepening play?

Maybe a stupid question ... is there a contract that trades which represents the yield curve (i.e. 2-10 spread)? I searched the CME and CBOT sites, but didn't find one. Other than buying/selling x amount of 2 yrs (or eurodollars) and selling/buying y amount of 10 yrs, I don't see another way...

Maybe a stupid question ... is there a contract that trades which represents the yield curve (i.e. 2-10 spread)? I searched the CME and CBOT sites, but didn't find one. Other than buying/selling x amount of 2 yrs (or eurodollars) and selling/buying y amount of 10 yrs, I don't see another way...

I live a couple blocks from the montesori. I nearly bought that little house right next to the parking lot in 1999 to live in fix up and flip. Someone else got it and made some nice coin. :(

Gladwyne checking in.:)

Whoa there! What data might that be? Other than being given a 'heads up' a day or two before the employment report, I doubt the Fed knows anything that's not available to the market. How do I know this? ... the Fed is almost always significantly wrong at key turning points in the economy...

I'm happy too.:)

^^^ Very true. They face that risk as well. I'm confident they can handle it. Their managers have done well w/rising rates and w/falling rates. What they can't handle is a flat yield curve - no water into wine w/these guys.:)