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You'll need to confine yourself to the front end of the yield curve. So you can trade eurodollars, outright or as calendar spreads. Extremely liquid. They're based on the LIBOR. Not treasuries but just as good and low margins. Fed funds futures also have low margins. If three year note...

-- Market was already falling before any CFTC talk. -- Baltic Dry Index (shipping rates) is down hard too after rallying in sync with oil. Can't blame it on speculators b/c none are allowed there! Indeed it is far more volatile than oil, probably because immediate supply and demand push it...

Thanks TraderTX -- I've been out of the market most of the week.

And yet oil production failed to increase. Most oil producers are in decline. New wells aren't big enough. Production seems to be peaking.

I missed a great soybean short on the q/v, q/x and others... they were in my notebook for today's trades, and I missed them as they were so fast out the gate... damn... guess I should place trades in the overnight, but seems riskier...

Actually it was the peaking of US oil production in the early 70's that gave previously unknown pricing power to the oil exporting countries who formed OPEC. Anyway the Obama administration isn't talking about shutting down the futures markets. Obama's a capitalist too. Government is FORCED...

I'm pretty much with Landis here. No reason investment banks should be considered "commercials," let alone ETF's. The swaps loophole needs to be eliminated. This move in crude was coming anyway. It may be exacerbated by the regulatory news, but we're at the top of the year, gasoline had...

From Wikipedia: 'In 2005, the US Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management. Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk...

If only it were so...

Are you talking to me? It seems you didn't read your own link or what I wrote. Didn't your daddy teach you how to read? The article agrees that fundamentals were involved in the rising prices, and I said speculation was a factor (esp trend followers and ETF's) -- just less important than the...

I wouldn't be too sad if they got rid of physical commodity ETF's. Meanwhile you should read this: http://www.edhec-risk.com/features/RISKArticle.2008-11-26.0035/attachments/EDHEC%20Position%20Paper%20Oil%20Prices%20and%20Speculation.pdf The big point is that with all of its failings...

How do exchange rates affect spreads? Would a us dollar move affect the curve equally, or would you expect it to affect the front months more? Maybe it would have to do with the market's interpretation of the dollar move as temporary or structural? Do interest rate / inflation expectations...

Thanks very much PAPA.

Do you guys think the new calendar spread options have a shot at catching on?

PAPA if I can ask, do you think front-running UNG will become an overcrowded trade? Or is UNG just too massive? Could you have to get in sooner and sooner as the trade becomes more popular, to front-run the front-runners so to speak? And from what you can see are UNG's rolls timed...

Just took profit on z/k corn -- probably too soon but it was a resting limit order from days ago. Wow -- soybean hell! Shorted the aug-nov bean spread yesterday at 133 since it was looking like a real reversal for a minute -- worked great -- 5 1/2 cents up in just a few minutes -- until I...

Careful about cherry picking.

So does this seem right? -- for old crop consecutive month spreads like july/aug or aug/sep, it's going to be first and foremost the front month generally leading the curve toward spot. Spot in turn will be determined by crush rates, and the demand for meal and oil. Is this right? So soy becomes...

On the GS +clv9/-ngv9 tip again, maybe the long WTI leg could protect against hurricanes?

I guess if you think CL's going to $85 then you're buying on a dip... If I can ask, where did you get the Goldman gas update? I mean, can it be found online?