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0949 This is it for tests of the low, at least for me. If we don't break 106 12 soon, try to get out at 106 13 or 106 14. Bottom line with multiple contracts, get out of half or more now.

0839 CST A small amount of weakness. Will it continue? If you are cautious, get out at the re-test of the low of the day.

OK, a brief update. How should I have played today? I had a sell all set to go at 106 18 somewhere during the 0735 bar. Sleeping baby gets up and wants milk. Pass on the trade. 106 18 to 106 13 / 106 12 would have been all I was looking for today with a 4 lot. More to come later.

Holding for more because you got in late is actually a very bad decision and not to be followed. A target is a target, no matter where you get in. My first target is 106 12, so technically I should look to get out at 106 13 or 106 12, and maybe hold 1 contract for better prices.

bid / ask combat at 106 13 and 106 12 looks to be nicely in our favour for shorts. 5 min and 60 min neural network (my own stuff) are both soundly negative. I may hold for lower prices rather than getting out for small profit as I got in late.

OK we've broken. Targets are 106 12, 106 09, 106 07 and 106 03. If we break 106 03, we may see 105 27. Take profits at any of those points. I'm sitting on 4 lots.

ECTrader, I'll reply later when I am able. I've not posted here much since my posting experiment ended back in February. I'm doing it now with less writing and commitment. Posting interferes with trading.

0750 CST Here at the lows of the day in the ZB 106 15. Will we break or go higher? I'm saying we break for a test of new lows.

Today we have housing starts at 0730 CST. This should be a report good for 6 - 10 ticks either way. I've already discussed how I trade a day like today. Summary: good report = buy pullbacks after initial spike up / bad report = sell rallies after initial drop. This is not easy trading...

mcurto, Glad to see you stop by! Any words on activity down at the lows of 106 15 to 106 12 for Monday 19 June 2006? Is your take more weakness to come, or that we have hit a short term cycle low? I had a target of 106 16 per last Friday's post as well as tentative targets of 106...

Just to clarify: In addition to the above ZB, I did the following: Sell 1 ES 1258.25 at 0929 CST Buy 1 ES 1257.50 at 0939 CST Sell 2 ZN 104 240 at 0508 CST Sell 2 ZN 104 265 at 0746 CST Buy 4 ZN 104 240 at 1018 CST

Out of everything at 10:23 CST at 106 15. It is already 3 hours into the trading day. Very little movement. We hit my target already once and I stood aside. I'm not going to do it twice. Price activity down here at 106 15 is very lethargic. Calling it a day. Almost 500 USD is pretty...

On 06-16-06 03:01 AM, I posted: "I've written extensively about the dangers of the 00's. That was my rationale for the exit. Later in the morning when we went back to test 107 04, I sold a single contract at 107 03 and I'm sitting on it overnight as I think 106 16 is a possibility for...

Luc: Wouldn't it be great to skip days you aren't very good at? ;-) Bottom line, my setup mentioned on Wednesday, and applied both Wed and Thur, is really a morning 0730 report type setup. I have other setups for other types of day. I establish price projections in a ladder fashion...

luckyhonda, Visit my Bond Trader 2006 post to get a feel for my methodology. I haven't posted there since February, so don't ask questions there. This message thread is the only one I read now due to the intelligent folks posting on this thread. 107 24 was pretty obvious given the chart...

The fact of the matter is that you will really never know for sure which way bonds will go after a report. All it takes is one time having the ZB jump 16 - 32 ticks against you as you stare at your screen, and then you'll learn your lesson, hopefully forever. Lesson: Never, ever, ever take...

mcurto, I'm sure many have said this before, but I'd like to say it anyway. Thank you for posting here. You are among a small handful of posters that I will read without fail.

drsteph, I'll second your view on the 30 year long bond rate. While my time horizon is short term, I keep an eye open for the long term trend (6 months to a year out) as well. Between the war, the deficit, the dollar, housing etc, I believe rising rates are the only sure thing over the...

I wonder if anyone would care to add their 2 cents re: similiarities to 1987.

I'll be taking a break until Wednesday at a minimum. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be giving his semiannual monetary policy testimony starting this Wednesday. It might be a good idea to not trade at all until Friday. If you insist on trading, don't forget the 5 - 10 minute...