Search results

How in the world did you get to those conclusions? I am not trying to discourage anyone! That couldn't be further from the truth... This is why I give you a hard time bill, your conclusions are just wrong and you will never admit it... that, and you call too many people stupid. I seriously...

Actually, that's not what happens... If you were able to step outside of your own ego, then maybe you'd realize that I have come to my own conclusions and do not want to influence any new ideas. Discussions, the way you choose to have them, are one-sided. I.E. intradaydouche dictates...

Yep intradaydouche, that sounds about right. Do you wonder why I choose those particular conditions? Seem awfully simple don't they... Hmm... any insight other than calling me an idiot? Mike P.S. Bill, how many people have you called an idiot, loser, stupid etc on this site...

I'm not intending to prove anything here. Of course I understand what my program does. It's a simple stupid program.... two lines of code . Do you understand what it does? You're apparently not aware of ES liquidity (non issue) and I've already mentioned this isn't meant to overcome spread...

Let's take a look at 25 runs with the entry conditions as posted earlier. Each value is a resulting PnL. The AVG is the average of 25 runs: No Condition 42325 -8275 25975 111700 -287 11650 32150 -29400 10025 7100 -27450 -17237 9112 2975 23400 -34912 38725 -4775 34587 -5812...

intradaybill, Since you've responded with something somewhat relevant, I've decided to address you by your ET handle rather than your temporary handle: intraday-douche. You have this amazing ability to use soooo many words to say very little. People with that ability bore the crap out...

Very good question... I have a home brewed way of looking at outcomes, but, it would be neat to hear some ideas...

Yes, this is a caveat as there are no true random # generators out there. But, for qualitative purposes, something simple will work. As you mention, in this case, the point is qualitative, truly random versus pseudo-random won't really make a difference.

I'm glad these results have gotten people to ask a variety of questions, that was the motivation for me. I have answers to these questions that I'm comfortable with, but, I encourage people to formulate their own conclusions. One thing before we continue: Intradaybill, I appreciate you...

I'm not sure where you went wrong here, possibly by not reading very carefully... 60k is from 1 contract constant over time... No position size relative to account... Inflation? Seriously? That's your angle? Wasting time? You've failed to grasp a very important concept here... In fact...

Huh? What does this have to do with net annual return? Risky investment? WTF? Who said anything about those metrics, let alone actually investing. You missed the point of the post entirely. The point is, from a system evaluation standpoint, why are we seeing a profitable equity curve...

So, what's happening here? Why do we see a 50% win rate with an apparent "edge"?

Okay, so the first step towards enlightment and progress is admitting that one is clueless. Your post above essentially admits your level of knowledge, so maybe now we can make some progress here. Just take a few deep breaths and accept the fact that you're in a bit over your head. Here is...

Again, you're misinterpreting my posts. This isn't about finding valid edges, there are 1000's of those. This isn't about proving that a market dynamic is a random distribution just like that of an N-coin flip(of course its not). This is a thought experiment... And, what's wrong with...

My recommendation is that you begin learning R. It is free and you can create scripts to do exactly what you are asking. Also, nearly all of the curve-fitting functions out there have open source implementations in R. Here's a starter: http://www.itc.nl/~rossiter/teach/R/R_CurveFit.pdf

masterjaz_99, With all due respect, you're being too nice to this guy. I've read through his posts here... no need to validate yourself to him. My advice: have some fun with em'. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll see another bwolinsky-esqe reaction here. Those are fun... Mike

Couldn't of said it better myself. Thanks for taking the time to post your stuff. Many here seem to believe that randomness is something to trivialize and disregard. The monty hall paradox and the secretary problem are two classic examples that most shrugg off either due to the...

I'm primarily intraday so the costs of liquid vs. illiquid execution can add up significantly. My personal rule of thumb is < 3% of the avg. 3 day dollar transaction amount. So if a stock is at $10 with 500k in avg daily volume, that's approx. $5mil in daily transactions. $5mil x 0.03 =...

You didn't read my post very carefully. I'm disappointed... Many here have posted examples of random trends that look very similar to many stock market moves. There is plenty of literature out there that shows "trending" examples with simple random walks. That said I do not dismiss the...

This response is indicative of your inherent bias in the way you view markets, trading, investing etc. The theory presented here is very sound. If you had read the reference materials/threads, you'd be rethinking your own assumptions. We are not talking about personal biases here nor are...