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My brain is a little numb today, I need a refreshment.. If you sell in-the-money EFD or in-the-money call option. what is the chance of being called on the same day? The same week? The same month? Thanks, ---Fish

Testing the theory is not hard, but it takes considerable amount of time. Data for AAA goes back only to 1983 - if I am not mistaken. Thus you only have 20 years of annual data. Not much to rely on. Remember you have to detrend the DJIA ROR to get a good a proxy. Or else you have the...

I wouldnt put too much stock into it - no pun intended. For a while the dividend yield vs interest raterelationship was a good proxy, however, for the last two decades, that hasnt really hold much water. That theory might suffer from spurious autocorrelation as well.

Wow, thanks a lot. This info might save me some headache along the way.:)

Anyone perplexed at the wide range of return? Wouldnt we expect consistent return? Does the data factor in slippage or transaction costs?

Awesome, i think you have to risk-adjusted it. Ri - rf divided by max drawdown or standard deviation.

Part of the problem stems from the other side of the fences. Phynance, Econophysics, etc. have close to zero respect for TA and surpirsingly, Economics. Ask them about about EHM. Ask them about head-and-shoulder, Gann wheels, elliott Wave theory .... You get the point. Its...

"Sornette cautions that his model allows him to make broad predictions, but is not able to predict where the stock market will be on any particular day or week. " - -- Ucla So basically it doesnt tell us much. Thanks a lot. <------ Sarcasm

If his theory and methodology are true (which is a HUGE "if"), it will dissipate once people replicate. D.E. Shaw example should more than provide guidance. Market are efficient for the most part. The Inefficiency gets ironed out ... eventually.

Thanks for replying guys. Great suggestions. To answer the last Q's, we have been seeking to get "seed" money, i.e. try the money managing route. Needless to say, that effort has been fruitless for a variety of reasons. One prospect was very interested in our technology; however, they...

Risk adjusted standard takes into account risk free security. (ri - rf) as numerator. And denominator can be of variant type: Sharpe, Treynor, W-adjust, Calmor, etc.

My biggest problem is that I do not have credibility. But I believe whole-heartedly in my "product." The method and analysis are very labor and capital intensive, but the output can be readily used by fiduciaries and investors alike. The "aim" of the product is to outperform indices with...

Good info:)

I am thinking of starting a newsletter, do anyone have any experience starting up a newsletter? I am hoping to make it a biweekly publication. Content is not the issue, its the clientele (or to be correct, trying to get clients). Any Advce would suffice. Thanks in advance. :)...

Option_Attack, I read that book. It was a sharp contrast to The Predictors.

I want to get your thoughts and opinion on this company. Supposedly they have found the "holy grail" What baffles me is that: 1. UBS Warburg renewed their contract for a minuscule fee around $5 million (wired magazine) 2. Why would Packard ever consider licensing his technology in...

Lets start during the first week of May. By then I hope to have some guidelines. Feel free to do as you please, though. ---Fish

Typo: Clearly I have NOT thought this out.

Please, give me some suggestion :)

Can you beat the Market? Needless to say, this is one of the most perplexing problem in finance/trading/life. I am proposing this quasi-contest for anyone willing to join. Here are the guidelines/rules: 1. On Sunday Night (or before Monday's bell) select FIVE or less stocks from NYSE...