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  1. janbillian

    Educators who Have Zero proof they even trade (99%) - wtf?

    John Carter is legit, he caught the big upswing in Tesla shares with call options which leverd an already big move. Problem is, past performance can never guarantee future results. Same goes for star fund managers. John Paulson was a big winner in the subprime Crisis, but he lost his mojo...
  2. janbillian

    I did backtest my formula

    Yinyang, I have one URL for you, https://firstratedata.com/i/futures/ES . You can you use any online search engine, many resources are available for long term data, but they of course charge you for it. Free data is unfortunately very limited. If your system performed that well with the exact...
  3. janbillian

    I did backtest my formula

    yinyang, backtesting can be valuable if you don't fall into the trap over curvefitting, proabably the #1 error. A dataset for a give timeperiod gets an indicator and / or candelstick overlay, and than depending on adjustment possibilites, the setups caught the past timeperiod perfectly. #2...
  4. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I believe GBPUSD, now trading @ around 1.3878, is back in its upward trend. I'd place a long bet here with the SL being placed @ 1.3720, profittarget would be 1.4200 .
  5. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Tesla (TSLA) has reported quarterly earnings of slightly above 1 billion US$, but the share price is in red territory. Shortselling is very expensive because of the high borrowing fee that profiting from a falling shareprice is very difficult, selling call options may be a route for investors...
  6. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I'm a bull for the currency pair USD vs JPY (USDJPY), it currently trades @ around 110.33, I think it might rally to 115.00 . SL I'd place @ 109.00 .
  7. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Silver - a possible short-term buy / long setup. It now trades @ 25.17, I think it may climb to 26.00 or higher. SL I'd place @ 24.90 US$ .
  8. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I posted a long setup in the FX pair GBPUSD, I'd now close with a profit if not already closed and switch to short. The pair currently trades @ 1.3620, I would initiate a short position with the stop loss being placed @ 1.3920, profittarget should be around 1.2900 .
  9. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    The long / buy setup in the shares of British Petroleum (ISIN GB0007980591) is no longer valid, would have to be closed at a loss. I interpret the chart such that the long term upward trend has been broken and it's not likely the shares will significantly rise in the next 3 years. Shares now...
  10. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I just explored possible alternatives to investing in a low cost index fund on the S&P 500, the "bread and butter strategy" Warren Buffett repeatedly suggests most private investors should choose. I was given the suggestion that factors like momentum can result in slight excess returns relative...
  11. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Very recent interview with trend following legend Tom Basso, he's got an interesting take on the interplay of governments' policies & central banks monetary interferences. Begins @ 52:50 https://systemtrader.show/sts-020-tom-basso-trend-following-mindset/
  12. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Sorry, but this is simply not true. The annualized return will only get more difficult to realize with the same trading rules / system if liquidity in the traded markets is an issue, and it makes zero difference if 10k US$ or 50k US$ are traded. I won't however further comment on this. When I...
  13. janbillian

    I'm new to the site. Who are the "real deal" handles here?

    padutrader is the real deal, he made a great call in the FX pair USD vs CAD (USDCAD), last year.
  14. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    The year ? 2003 . The exact date ? January 7th. "Now is the time to buy Apple", wrote a CNN reporter by the name Paul La Monica. The reasoning was basically Apple having almost no debt, being valued at only slightly above its net assets (the market cap back then was only around 5.3 billion US$)...
  15. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I just for the first time examined this weird Gamestop ("GME" on tradingview) share rise. The company is not profitable, was hovering around far below its all-time high in 2003 until suddenly it saw its share price increase by more than 100 (around 10,000% !) in a very short timeframe. This was...
  16. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    .... break from my hiatus as I've posted two setups in the currency pair USD vs CAD that would have resulted in a loss ! However, that is the nature of trendfollowing, it has a low hit quote of only around 40 - 45%, that is more than half of posted setups will be losers anyhow :( . It's now...
  17. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I'll take a hiatus from posting in this thread, as of now I have not found new setups I consider potentially profitable. Natural Gas now trades @ 3.758 (source : tradingview), it shows the nature of trendfollowing. Many whipsaws can and will occur, and in a few times a big trend will develop...
  18. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Daniel Loeb, founder of Third Point Asset Management, is a selfmade billionaire thanks to his flagship fund delivering alpha. I just watched a presentation of him on YouTube, he calls this book by Joel Greenblatt "the best book on the stock market ever written" ! It was first published in 1999...
  19. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Ray Dalio in a short clip where he explains possible conditions for a "bubble" in the stock market. 01:31 is his warning traffic light !
  20. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    On page 12, I posted a bullish setup in Natural Gas (NATURALGAS on tradingview), it traded @ 1.964 back then on August 3rd, 2020, price now is 3.37 US$ . This shows the importance of holding on to winners when a strong trend develops in either direction. The way I interpret the chart on a...
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