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So the backwardation in oil was due to the optionality of holding onto the physical oil - if something should happen, you had the option to sell into the spike. OK, that makes sense. But why do you say that natgas is in backwardation? Spot natgas is at $2 and the curve is in contango...

Some markets indeed are characterized by a persistent backwardation. It is a well-known phenomenon in the case of the crude oil market, as reported, for example, by Litzenberger and Rabinowitz (1995). In almost 20 years, the market witnessed only three contango situations: in 1993-1994, in...

when I say backwardated I simply mean inverted futures curve. oil demand is inelastic. 1% in price -> .02% change in demand. natgas is harder to store and demand can switch back and forth between coal and natgas, so more elastic.

I forget where I read that oil is usually in backwardation and natgas in contango, but it seems to make sense. Oil certainly spends more time in backwardation than contango. Maybe it has to do with the commercial buyers - the buyers of natgas are utilities who want to lock in supply. The buyer...

Is it the cost of storage? Is it that difficult to store natgas?

NYT confirms he never made money trading (blew up two funds) and then profited from embezzlement and stock fraud. He seems unaware that the SEC and DOJ mean business. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/business/martin-shkreli-the-bad-boy-of-pharmaceuticals-hits-back.html?smid=tw-dealbook&smtyp=cur

Here is a good report on Martin's crimes. Shkreli obviously failed at trading and then turned to defrauding. http://www.newsweek.com/martin-shkreli-drug-manipulation-daraprim-retrophin-375416

Right, there are multiple ways to get the money from a short to KBIO and Martin. The Feds did the same thing with AIG. Feds owned a metric shitton of AIG shares. The shares had warrants attached. The banks orchestrated a squeeze, exacerbated by the warrants, the banks shorted into the squeeze...

The shares are parked with a brokerage. So the brokerage can short, using the shares . . . and then pays Martin a huge fee for the short or finds some other way to compensate him, for instance by giving him shares in an IPO guaranteed to open above IPO price. Or the brokerage shorts and then...

I love how Shkreli says that he would pay the $2.3M bill to Lehman if they would just ask him. He really is a first class troll. As for the KBIO short squeeze, he personally doesn't have to sell into it to profit from it.

Shkreli does have this in common with your hero: he's busted two funds

He borrowed the hoodie and arrogance from Zuckerberg (the movie character) but he's obviously smart too. https://t.co/7AnSj56dqv It looks like he's run two funds, Elea and MSMB. Elea failed and he owed Lehman Bros $2.3M for a trade that went against him. MSMB also failed and it looks like he...

Cooperman regularly calls in. He asked management at SD to buy back stock and they did last year and now they're exchanging debt for equity at pennies on the dollar. So highly indebted companies buying back stock is a bad idea. Cooperman just wants to get out of his position.

it's interesting that he does actually show alpha. his longs underperform the market over last five years (94% vs. 95.5%) but his shorts do better than one would expect (about 80% vs 87%). What he's managed to do is find two groups of stocks that both underperform the market - both his longs and...

But look at the commentary linked above. His shorts perform as well as his longs. In a down 10% year in the stock market, his fund will be down 5%+. He's only doing 6% because it's been a bull market (isn't it strange how all funds seem to have been started in spring of 2009?)

Hasn't Hall been successful over the years? But he has had a few bad years being long oil, or so I've read. But at least "long oil" is a position. This guy has no positions really, just long and short the same thing and calling it a long-short fund.

The RiverPark short long fund has returned about 6%/year over last five years. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=RLSFX&ql=0 So here's his investor letter: http://www.riverparkfunds.com/Funds/LongShortOpportunity/Commentary.aspx His longs and shorts do about the same, so he's basically long the...

it was funny because there's practically no difference between 2000 and 10000. a prop account is not the same as 10000.

this made me lol

this is true. it's even possible that institutional training - finance/econ degree, working at a bank or in a fund, etc is actually an impediment to success in the market. that training gives the illusion of expertise, and that expertise is predicting the future. hence if you go on twitter and...