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To be clear, I'm not adamant about buying e-minis. I'm just saying that with such low vols, you are actually making a directional bet in addition to the lower vol bet. Edge is highly negative here on the low vol side of it, so you might as well just make the directional bet.

Sure, if you don't have the discipline to trade it, any positive edge will lose.

Let me see if I can explain it simply. The basis of the problem is both Delta and Gamma as the two are related. Delta = the amount that a certain option contract changes proportionate to the move in the underlying. i.e. if the underlying gains $1 and the option gains $0.5 then the delta...

Fallacy of the bear call vertical. There is not 100% correlation between direction and vol. Amplitude is also not at all congruent. Example: You sell a bear call spread 80-points OTM. In one day, SPX rises 40-points. Vol drops from 18 to 16. Over the next two days, SPX gives up 15...

That's just the thing with OTM vertical spreads. It doesn't take a perfect storm. Especially if the trader is selling them @ low IV (current environment). Selling a credit spread here (IV ~ 18) is equivalent to waiting for the market to plunge 50% and then deciding that short selling is...

LOL... I like that, but there is really a difference between the two. Long term expectancy. If negative, you are gambling. If positive, you are not gambling. Plain and simple.

IOW = In Other Words You can trade ES through ToS last I checked, but their margin reqs and commissions aren't as good as IB and Tradestation. Anyway, I'm talking about the futures, not the options on the futures. There is edge in the futures too if the model is good. I was just telling...

Sure, I understand what you are saying, and I agree with the concept that a good trader can make a very good living if trading prop. I'm quite familiar with the way a standard prop shop operates. But stated returns are quite different for prop guys than any other retail trader or fund manager...

Here are some posts I made to a different thread that might help a bit. Then a bit of follow up elaboration... That somewhat shows the mental path moving from options to futures. After that I started to get much better at direction. TONS of screen time and an above average memory and...

Just to make things clear. I'm not talking return on margin. 100% return on margin used each month is a cake walk, relatively speaking. The numbers I stated are net returns on the entire portfolio. It is very different. Examples for those who don't understand the difference.... 1)...

I understand your sentiment and agree, except that there are more details that I don't really wish to argue, but will take a second to elaborate slightly. I didn't develop something that would only work under a single condition. As conditions change (high vol to low vol, bearish to bullish, or...

Unfortunately, no I can't tell you how I developed my models in any detail. My strengths are in math/stats, but I am a horrible programmer. I had to hire out the programming, but I kept everything so vague in the programming that he would not be able to use it. IOW, there are many data fields...

If you're sincere, I'll give you a bit while I've got some time. I'm not around here much anymore. You'll find that after you become a profitable trader, the conversations around here don't offer much value outside boredom relief on a slow trading day. Edge in options trading does exist...

To you new guys to this thread who are trying to figure out the world of options. I'd like to make a comment that I hope you'll take seriously. If you do it will dramatically shorten the path to where you are going to end up in trading. Once you've studied options to the point where...

I've had a decent career as a trader. I would consider it above average. Well, since the average trader under-performs the market by the amount of commissions, then I guess I've been well above average. If you have no legitimate edge other than skill, then 2%/month is great and 10 years...

You've got a bit of a problem. 1) While many threads have useful nuggets, I would suggest that almost all have too much garbage to be considered hall of fame worthy. 2) Those individuals who qualify on the $1MM prerequisite, are amazingly few and far between here. Of the active...

Those stats are likely legit, but IMO don't tell the whole story. IOW, how many of those people are simply "cutting a check" from personal savings. I would bet that very few fall into that category. I would also bet that a huge chunk of those cash sales weren't to an individual, but rather...

That is an interesting argument, but how many rich people ($20MM+ net worth) have you met who have decided that they don't want to make any more $? Besides that, it isn't about the write-offs. The rate on a home is much lower than most forms of financing. It's not difficult at all to beat a...

Not true unless you are only talking about the ultra wealthy, as in multi-billionaires (top 1-2,000 ppl in the world). As monetary wealth is all relative, I would classify anyone in the top 1% net worth as truly rich. The common misconception amongst the fake rich and upper middle class is...

when i run the macro, a file path window comes up, but then when I select a folder with a bunch of .xls files, nothing happens.