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  1. bone

    Patenting a trading strategy !? ;-)

    Much ado about nothing. I come from a family of engineers, and each of us holds patents in just about all scientific disciplines. My gig was nuclear engineering, and my patent was issued here in the U.S. in September of 1998 for Composite Thermal and Nuclear Radiation Shielding. I am...
  2. bone

    Who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest?

    sure, go for it big boy. i've been playing with house money for a long time in the treasuries.
  3. bone

    Who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest?

    Speculators get paid on price. All knowledge, from every market participant, and all of the requisite fundamentals regarding the fair pricing of an instrument is contained in that last price tic.
  4. bone

    Who are the idiots buying bonds for 1% interest?

    I've been long U.S. fixed income futures for several months. I get paid on price appreciation and nothing else. Look at a weekly and monthly bar chart for God's sake - Stevie Wonder could have seen that one coming. Already started scaling out, three more points on the TY and I'm flat.
  5. bone

    Trading is NOT a business

    Peternam: I don't get your point. No comparison at all. None.
  6. bone

    Trading is NOT a business

    Well, with all due respect, I couldn't pay my expenses on an 8% RoI. I post a statement on my website from 2006 for the ICE-Europe Brent-GasOil Crack spread, using on average $50K per day in margin, which netted just under $500K. That type of scenario is not unusual for a very good Chicago...
  7. bone

    Consistently Profitable Traders - Going Red to Black

    Just try to be consistent. I try to get my clients into the mindset that the biggest thing for them is to string together successive net positive days in a row, and to have modest P&L expectations. All kinds of very good habits arise from that simple mindset - the trader becomes selective, the...
  8. bone

    Trading is NOT a business

    OK, I'll play then. It is commonly said that the best career is a hobby that pays enough to be called a profession. I really enjoy trading - it's a 'job' that I'm enthusiastic for and which I find intellectually stimulating. I have made enough money trading (18 consecutive profitable years)...
  9. bone

    Can market profile help scalpers?

    I was a student of Pete Steidelmeyer and Robin Mesch, and IMO Market Profile is one of the more useful and applicable technical approaches to the markets. It is one of the few technical studies I personally know of where I have met and know traders who make a consistent living using the...
  10. bone

    CL Spreads

    My trading system uses statistical correlations and technical studies. With 18 years of tuning. Good models will account for fundamental price action, and from a spec standpoint you don't want to take a position until price action warrants it - you'll run out of bullets long before. IMO...
  11. bone

    CL Spreads

    We are effectively swing trading the spread, with an average daily trading range of about 7 tics or so it just doesn't make sense to trade it on a higher frequency. For me, at least, contango and backwardation is more a phenomenom than a tradeable event per se. We use models that account for it.
  12. bone

    Recommend 'Time Series Analysis for Dummies'?

    This is a much more worthwhile endeavor than 90% of the technical analysis studies out there.
  13. bone

    Swing trading for 3-1p/l and 1-1 w/l

    When you backtest your stop triggers, don't be surprised that having a stop just about as wide as your profit target tests better than the tighter stop. Again, this is with the prototypical swing trading position holding period.
  14. bone

    Recommend 'Time Series Analysis for Dummies'?

    I traded commercial OTC electricity for a while in the '90's, and recently financially-cleared ICE and Clearport Power Swaps - "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices, A Statistical Approach" by Rafal Weron is the most marketplace-applicable and one of the most relevant books I...
  15. bone

    Recommend 'Time Series Analysis for Dummies'?

    I am a nuclear engineer by training with several patents for radiation shielding design in the early '90's. I've read Zivot & Wang's "Modeling Financial Time Series with S-Plus", I own MatLab, the MatLab Neural Net Toolbox, and Statistica. I don't make money trading with them per se. No...
  16. bone

    Developing a Strategy

    Depends entirely upon your ability to accurately develop a metric to quantify your items 1.a - h. Some are straightforward but some are very open to interpretation. And then you have to be able to analyze and apply your methodologies uniformly across your sampling population. If you...
  17. bone

    Why is deflation bad?

    I personally would like to see a good dose of it in the economy, because the U.S. economy couldn't sustain deflation very long and it would put some perspective back into corporate margins (which in the end would make U.S. manufacturing more competitive IMO). Might make existing real estate...
  18. bone

    Filing tax return as Trader Status and Mark to Market Election

    ... and be prepared to provide brokerage statements. There are IRS docket examples of hedge fund managers who were denied "trader" status treatment because they didn't trade at a frequency unilaterally deemed by the IRS to be active enough. The IRS unilaterally audited them and changed...
  19. bone

    What would you do & Why?

    Shagi: 1. It's rude to solicit advice by starting a post and then criticize a sincere and well-intended response. I have alot of clients who are ET members (over 30), and maybe 35% of them have professional fund management experience - and my response to your post was reflective of that...
  20. bone

    Swing trading for 3-1p/l and 1-1 w/l

    Swing trading with tight stops is not practical these days. If you have a decent model, you pretty much have to use a stop/loss comparable to the profit target. Depending upon what you're doing, it might be entirely possible that your cumulative losses on tight stop triggers will be greater...
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