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:D

These are fair points. All I'm saying is if the fellow here feels uncomfortable buying into this 10+ year rally, there are other alternatives. Heck, buying bonds is probably less nerve recking than waking up at 2 am everyday to check how the ES is trading relative to Asia / Europe and how it's...

Wording is a bit confusing. Ok, using more, MORE simpler terms. Red line goes up, SPX goes down immediately. Blue line goes down, SPX goes up one month later.

elaborated a bit more for your convenience.

I would not be surprised if you said for a 65 year old. But for a 28 year old??? Damn, what's with this hostility about NOT FOMOing in at the top? :rolleyes: Smart money index is back at 1990 levels on BT (i.e., in cash, bonds). Are you seriously telling this fellow to do what all the dumb...

dozu, First of all, this is kind of interesting. Thanks for sharing. Now the most obvious conclusion here is to just bash retail: "went net short while S&P returned double digits this quarter", yadda yadda yadda. But after looking closely I think you will see the net positioning actually lags...

NASDAQ (w/ annualized div yield) has been on fire lately. :strong:

I unironically saw you make this same statement before October of last year. ;)

The most prudent thing to do is to go long bonds (treasuries) or short the market. A buy and hold via a long fund sounds logical (here we go with Warren Buffet analogies...) but during recessions most retail investors are forced to sell their stocks at the worst time possible to put food on the...

when trading shares, look at the IV on the ATM options. Low IV = everyone knows what the fair value of the stock is, likely to move in consistent trends or sideways, VERY difficult to trade. high IV = nobody knows where the fair value of the stock is, mean reversions occur frequently, or massive...

HFTs front running bid/ask to scalp pennies.

The mother of all pigs here is Sallie Mae.

Tesla is a company where market participants can derive polarizing yet rational conclusions from the same set of information. Which means vol is high and mean reversion is frequent, making it an ideal trading stock.

Selling OTM puts on the index is synthetically equivalent to buying a junk bond with AAA coupon rate; Not only is the return abysmal but the trash bond will eventually default and wipeout your entire portfolio. Considering using the interest you earned on your 2040 bonds to finance call options...

....probably not. haha

Yea I agree with regards to speculation. For these events, it's really hard to get an estimate of how big the gap will be without looking at company fundamentals and past clinical data for the drug. Vol itself is not going to cut it. Thanks for clarifying, I live in Canada. :D

What do you guys think some of the advantages are for both institutional and retail traders? Here's my two cents: Institutional - 1. Technology. ex. Renaissance supercomputers 2. Order flow. ex. MMs doing conversions and reversals. 3. Portfolio margin. Less collateral needed for hedges; M&A...

Let's say you have a small biotech company XYZ trading at $50, expecting to report pivotal phase III results in September. The one month out ATM puts are selling for $10 with 300% IV. Seeing vol is ridiculously large, an option writer opens a new contract speculating vol will fall even if a...

Hmm, yea, this is in line with what I'm thinking too. There's still quite of a bit risk premia left on VIX calls since Feb and it's probably better to position more on the cheap SPXs. Get these puts at the start of the week and buy VIX calls near the end. Also, very interesting that you...

Sorry should've spelled that out. It's Near The Money. ~45 deltas in my case.