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AFAIK a lurker means you read without posting. You don't need an account to read elite trader. You need an account to post.

Vince -- great response. 1. I'm not 100% sure what you mean by "tractable" but the dictionary says "easily handled/managed" so I'll assume that's what you mean. Tractable, in this context, means easy to test. It's kind of a math-y phrase I suppose. These formations apparently indicate that...

If you're trying to do HFT then you need to know how market microstructure works. That will tell you where the weakness is and how to exploit it. It has nothing to do with analyzing ticks or candles.

Central banks are why MMT does not do a great job of explaining exchange rates. A theory is only as good as it is at predicting the movement of spot rates, and no one uses MMT to run forecasts. What you extrapolate given a theory of MMT, that a gov can run deficits as long as it issues debt in...

Is it possible to edit the original post? Wanted to tweak/clarify a few things. Mods?

Actually it depends where you are in terms of moneyness, hence why “time decay” is a misnomer. Probably came about due to all the fotm calls retail buys...

So if you look at candle by candle returns, what is the size of the opportunity? Like could you make 0.20%? What is the probability of success dictated by your strategy? A good way to do this is to download ohlc data (for whatever period you trade) and then calculate average returns, the range...

Prices accrete or erode as the probability of an event rises as you move forward in time. "time decay" is a misnomer.

Thanks for the answer. I meant specifically what are you trying to trade? Are you trading intra-day momentum? If so, have you analyzed the opportunity and fleshed out your leading indicators? e.g. "low liquidity overnight drives price inefficiency in cash indices, enables futures traders to...

Why are you trading futures and what is your theory that describes your expected excess returns?

With your background in PE why the f*** would you be day trading? I would have thought you'd know all about risk premia...

what is your theory behind why lines on a chart will explain the price move of the stock?

Best way to see it is that as you move forward in time, the likelihood of an outcome increases or decreases. Options are priced probabilistically, and strike prices should be seen within a probability density framework . I recommend reading John Hull's textbook on options (called "the bible" on...

Warren Buffet

- Algorithms/ AI trading - and how to catch them - use them- You need to understand that, by and large, algo orders are used by large traders to reduce their impact on price. A popular benchmark for a portfolio manager is the daily VWAP. When a PM sends an order to a trader, he will compare the...

AFAIK, Dem Sweep = higher real rates + improving inflation. Overlay that on components of GDP and there are you trading ideas.

I don't see "master of the universe" on your list...:D

Are you willing to bet money on this? :P

Thanks for the detailed response. Some quick questions: 1. You say you're doing momentum plays -- but then bring up "price formation" things like plags/wedges/etc. AFAIK those formations are not tractable and are not easy to test (e.g. your 5 minute chart looks different on a 30 min, etc.)...

Fully discretionary but I have dealt a lot with systematic strategies so I’d want to use a hybrid system. A good way to see it is systematic idea generation with discretionary execution. Rationale is that I do not wish to capture beta returns of a trade — so I need to expand the idiosyncratic...