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I generally agree that revenue and earnings expectations for FY 21 are too low given the risk of 7%+ growth. But peaking doesn't mean a subsequent contraction. In an early cycle market, rebound in activity drive the spread between earnings growth and the cost of capital. As the economy...

There's an argument that we are accelerating through a cycle, so fade early-cycle and start buying mid-cycle/expansion. It's a good argument tbh, but I would wait to see economic data peaking, and I don't think we will see that until the end of Q2.

Logan do you seed startup hedge funds?

That’s ultimately my point. And it’s why there’s ultimately no signal in a chart pattern.

I just watched a clip of his...geez :vomit: Run the historical test to prove some kind of premia or anomaly in the first place. so distill your chart signal into key blocks. Example: Local high/(low) (last 20 bars) If next 3 bars are positive/(negative) then buy/(sell) Exit after 5 bars Run...

Loosely speaking, delta is the market derived probability of a stock landing at a strike price on expiry. You shouldn’t use this as the basis for a trade, but see it as a kpi to support a trade you’re making or are considering.

the delta on the call typically

this is not proof of your signal. great returns and good job otherwise!

Lol. Not very familiar with Al Brooks though. Why's he well known amongst day traders?

so what you're telling me is that you are using charts to make predictions on prices and that trading is working out for you. if you can't illustrate your returns ex-post or provide a study of your signal (going back in time, probably at least 100 min examples, likely more) then you are not...

1. How often do prices hit those levels you predict 2. How often do you trade on the signal 3. If you remove the return from liquidity provisioning and stock trend, how much of the return is attributed to your signal?

Are you billy hwang?! Lol but seriously, you making money on your trading has nothing to do with you using a bad signal. You are making an attribution error by explaining your returns with your chart signal. What are you are likely profiting from is liquidity provisioning or intra-day...

this is a well known phenomena called volatility clustering, there's lots of research on this. charts are actually very ill equipped to analyze this. and there are better ways of spotting this.

I guess that's one way to win clients

so you're saying if you see a 5min bar that's 4stds..you expect subsequent 4std moves?

I don’t follow. 1. How are you defining these events 2. How have you determined the probability of subsequent events occurring this is exactly what I mean when I say you’re being fooled by randomness. I can see numerous patterns in any chart, but none of them tell me the subsequent return...

I think you are confusing the return of liquidity provisioning with a chart pattern. No one is denying that there can be returns from buying low and selling high, and vice versa. What I’m saying is that chart patterns are random and are not useful at predicting subsequent returns. With that...

You can group stocks by similar characteristics to see if your pattern works Sure there are lots of things that have correlation, but correlation does not imply causation, and if you cannot provide a theory behind causal drivers then you do not know if you’re trading randomness or something real...

This is the wrong type of analysis. You should pay me dissertation fees for this but.. say you have this hypothesis that a pattern is predictive and results in a profit. So your first goal is to go through history and see how many occurrences there are in your data set. Then you can test to see...

Depends on the size of population, smart guy :p