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VWAP and the closing price are the most important thing for the primary dealers, bulge-bracket, prime brokers, investment banks, broker dealers, swaps dealers (they have many names). They process client orders (size) and contractually guarantee fills at VWAP and/or closing for securities...

There's a problem with the entire idea. You need to understand (really at a minimum) Micro and macro economics, capital structure, equities, fixed income, securitization, Fed policy and law, tax law, tons of theory ranging from stuff like 'balance of payments' to things like money supply and...

I'm not talking about making a trading system using it. Whether it's "better" than anything else is an opinion. I find it useful for what it's designed to do.

I like Kaufman's, Wilder's, Least Squares, and VWAP with deviation estimates. Ehlers stuff is cool, though. You should remember that every market is different. The long bond doesn't trade like an index, and a futures spread won't trade like a stock. That can depend on many things - liquidity...

Look, I'll comment here again, just because I think you're trying to add value to ET and are referencing some important stuff. I already said, it's the ideas that are important. So you should understand all the stuff from intro courses, and I mean really understand it. Random variables and...

If the global banks are forced to start viewing HK as mainland China, if the HKMA gets targeted, it's gonna get real.

If you think estimation theory is easy then you don't understand what I meant. A certain level, yes. But knowing markets and trading is much more important than mastering Ph.D level statistics.

Probability Theory really is very good. But a lot of it is too technical and too impractical for trading. Knowing how taking products and ratios of random variables will affect the distributions, or how linear combinations affect the variance based on independence and correlation can give you...

Here's the deal. Inflation is supposed to be a measure of growth since it's associated with economic output. Theoretically, when the economy is growing, money is flowing into the hands of consumers and so it will increase aggregate demand. Demand increases push prices up unless there is a...

Markets are random in the sense that there are no known models to accurately calculate many probabilities. Things like the probability of an uptick in ES at any given time are seemingly random. But traders know very well how to estimate the probability of the next move i.e. the outcome of...

Markets are not random (I've taken classes on advanced probability). It would be more accurate to say some things are more or less difficult to predict. And some instrument combinations exhibit more or less empirical variance to modeled distributions. This leads many participants to limit...

I don't know anything about all those ETFs but I know the futures markets. The growth/value spread is traded using futures buy levering exposure long/short in NDX/DJX. (not sure if this is what you mean) Anyway, the ratio is (40 * Nasdaq) - (15 * DJX). Maybe you could compare this to your...

Real pro's use things that are so dependable, statements like this are a total joke. Markets are not random at all. There are algo trading firms that do the same shit all day every day. Even the prime brokers (GS, JPM, UBS, etc.) do the same shit all the time. Some of it is totally obvious...

Hmm, guess I'm piggybacking this question thread with another. We can price inflation using the forward breakevens in the fives and tens. Could we theoretically trade the breakeven using CBOT rate spreads? (Would this be a good inflation hedge, while still preserving a diverse allocation?)

America is captured. Over 70,000 pages of corrupt and unfair tax code. (insanely regressive taxation - crony capitalism) Regulatory capture in insurance, real estate, finance, pharma. (punitive pricing, price gouging, and rent seeking are standard practice) The entire 'dual mandate' is a...

This book has a lot of good info (and the answer to your question).

Great traders can do both. There are opportunities in the market all the time. If you know what to look for, you can find them. You should be able to think both like a swing and daytrader when the time is right. Both can make very good money. An example I learned about, is that you can buy...

Related. Speed it up. The first speaker is pretty good. Arguments are presented.

Got too big too fast.

Very interesting. He says it leads the PREM, and that checks out. Anybody who knows anything about HFT, index arb, and program trading uses the PREM in some way. All the execution algo's and rate and index futures algo's are using it. It's central to the US market and tied in directly to the...