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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    JCP doing a Benjamin Button after the ugliest earnings report I've ever seen. "At first blush, the JCP print is not very pretty. At second blush, the JCP print might be even worse than the first blush," Deutsche Bank. Who's buying the dip? :p
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    See what happens when you go play golf in the afternoon? Missed my chance to buy Zillow -12% AH last night. It's already bounced $1.50. I've got a feeling it will retest the lows, so will place a buy order at $37.75. The earnings report was just fine, but a $150M shelf offering is spooking...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Instincts were spot on for Annaly two weeks ago. Downgrades are flying and the stock is off about 5% since. Sadly, I only sold 60% of it. I wouldn't sell more here, but I wouldn't buy just yet. The ones where I redeployed the cash - CMO and NCT - are doing just fine. Excited about Zillow...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Second sell-side upgrade of WMT in a week this morning. Nice move. Where were these geniuses when the stock was 25% cheaper after the NYT hit piece a few months back? Gonna look into selling covered calls on my holdings. For a decent premium, I'm happing to let anybody have my shares 5-10%...
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Covered the rest of the euro short ahead of the ECB meeting (though I still have a few put options hanging around out there). Methinks something's up. :)
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Covered half my euro shorts following the swoosh down after the Fed. Will hold the rest and see what the ECB has in store tomorrow.:cool:
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Louis Bacon returning big chunk of money to investors. With central planners ruling the developed world, he can't make money anymore. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/08/01/hedge-fund-titan-plans-to-return-2-billion-to-investors/?smid=tw-nytimesbusiness “The political involvement is so...
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Shorting euros this afternoon. I don't think either Draghi or Bernanke can deliver on all that's been built up for the two (esp. Draghi) over the past few sessions. Obviously, there are a bunch of ways to play it, but shorting the euro seems particularly low risk. Short euros outright and...
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So much depends on your needs/goals. If you're worried about the next few days or even the next few months, GOOG is not the stock for you. Fairly simple math nearly assures returns from owning GOOG will outperform the broad market over the next few years (this assumes an adaptable management can...
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Apple at $602.50 on my screen right now - above its level from before the "horrid" earnings release. Who knows where the stock goes for the next quarter. The company continues to trade at a ridiculous multiple. The PE is 14 on my Google screen right now. This doesn't factor in cash on the...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    And sure enough, here comes Wells Fargo with the NLY downgrade. http://www.dividend.com/blog/?p=50658 Stock is off 1%. The rest of the sector is just fine. Newcastle has already made back all of its post-secondary offering losses. Efficient markets? I'm losing count, but Newcastle has to...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I forgot to mention, I'm also an owner of Google now. The stock has been on my radar screen for awhile. Just as it was illogical to own WMT and MSFT and not own AAPL, it's also illogical to own those and not own GOOG (of course I'm out of MSFT now, just because mgmt is such a disaster). The...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Just unloaded 60% of my NLY. CIM has some serious issues and NLY owns a big chunk of it. There's a half dozen other mREITs I can park the money in until I figure out what is going on.
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Used the nice bounce today to unload my MSFT. I know Ballmer is in a tough spot, but I think he's doing everything he can to destroy the franchise. A value stock may be becoming a value trap. Windows 8 is the last straw...
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Mortgage REITs may be getting a bit frothy. Nearly all of the big ones trading well above book value and have done secondaries in the last month. Investors are desperate for yield, and the MBS prices have been driven up to the point where they seem to be pricing in a massive QE consisting of...
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Tilson gone. We very much hope our tipster is wrong: after all how will CNBC Fast Money viewers know to buy JCP at $27, and $26, and $25, and $24, and all the way down to $19 where it is today. Also who could have possibly foreseen the end of a mega long-biased end of a $345 Million fund...
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I would argue there's no incongruity between being a global macro player and value investing (at least as I have done it). My buys of what some would call "value" stocks over the past year are global macro plays - a recognition that certain stocks had over time become cheap in relation to...
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    J.C. Penney's stock price becomes a teenager. Ackman is furiously trying to get through to Eddie Lampert as JCP is dead as a retailer, but he may be able to engineer the shares higher as a real estate play (how funny will it be when Ron Johnson quits and the stock plunges only to triple over the...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Returning to the office for a couple of days before I head back to the beach and golf course, and I've got a lot to say! Yes, I always noted with bemusement what a total clown Ballmer was. Now that I'm an owner of the stock, I take it much more seriously as the guy is seemingly intent on...
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    EURCHF weeeee!!!!!:cool:
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