Search results

  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Long Zillow is better.:cool: UUP -1.65% YTD. Still 8 months to become trade of the year though.:)
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    It's actually worse than that. This line was in response to a question about David Einhorn. Having played a lot of competitive golf, I've spent a lot of time in the grill rooms and card rooms of the types of country clubs Munger's a member at (LACC, for one, I believe). These places don't...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Athens is the word - the people rising up against their Brussels-installed government. The neo-Nazis are going to have like 5-10% of the seats in parliament. Well done EU.
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    A bit misleading. CDS positions were larger by several multiples, but had been wound down over the 2 year song and dance leading up to the PSI.
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yep, the Nazis may take 5-10% of the vote (last election was something like 0.25%). "Two very mean-looking but polite boys came with me at the ATM to pick up my pension and then they brought me back home carrying the groceries to my apartment," said 72-year-old Anastasia Petikari, a retired...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Anybody playing the elections in Europe this weekend. I think Sarkozy is finished in France, but Greek could hold a surprise. Everyone reads and hears the horrid economic numbers out of Greece, but may not realize how bad things really are on the ground there. The reports I'm reading from...
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Eh, don't need the aggravation. Covered the euros at the price I sold them at.:)
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Sorry Marty, just sold a few euros on the ramp up during the ECB press conference. Those guys are delusional.:p
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Einohrn at Grant's a couple of weeks back. I've been waiting for some of the conference talks to start making their way into the media. They were all fantastic, especially Druckenmiller. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_b_1472509.html The Fed "put" isn't under...
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hendry at Milken Institute. He comes in around 12 min. and then at other times. http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=detail&eventid=gc12&EvID=3566 Fun stuff. France to nationalize banking system within a year (news to me, isn't their banking system de facto...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Out of HLF at $59 in the premarket. Woot! Thanks David Einhorn! :D :cool:
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I think it's vitally important to see the other side of the trade. He's not saying the floor will give way, but that talk of raising it is just talk. In the meantime, the SNB doesn't have to load up its balance sheet with more euros. I've found Krasting to be insightful (and leading to...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bruce Krasting picks up on the shrinkage in the SNB's Fx holdings. He believes the bank is talking a tough line and encourages speculation the floor may be raised while it uses any move higher in the euro to unload more of them. He thinks EURCHF peg should be more like 1.00. In the meantime...
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bernanke is up (and I suspect out no matter who is President) in 2014. You already see individual FOMC members lining up against him.
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bored. Just bought a nice chunk of HLF at $55, off 22% on this Einhorn stuff.
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bigger than expected 25 bps. RBA sees trouble. I should have said not passing through on a relative basis. Loan rates are falling less than RBA rate cuts. The aussie dove 100 pips on the news, now coming back as risk markets are green. Just saw this piece from my boys the Bond Vigilantes...
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Nobody mentioning the big rate cut in Oz. The economy is getting ugly down under and banks can't pass on rate cuts because their funding costs are rising. More RBA cuts are coming.
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Wow. RWE divvie just hit my account. I forgot they pay the dividend just once a year. Gotta love the German utilities! I would advise all currently pumping out pixels on earning a couple of basis points of positive expectation here or there to take advantage of the recent pullback and buy lots.
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    EURCHF floor is over, it's now a peg ... http://georgedorgan.livejournal.com/4447.html Bank actually sold euros in Q1. Unless Switzerland falls into a depression, floor isn't getting raised. The only good thing is the EURCHF longs from 1,2090, 1.2070, 1.2050, 1,2030 have all gotten...
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I know Merrill Lynch made a market in this stuff a few years back for even smallish BDSs such as myself. I nearly pulled the trigger on a 5 or 10 year put swaption on the 10-year yield in winter 2008 when it briefly yielded below 2% (stupid, the damn thing doubled within months). Vols were so...
Back
Top