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You have to include ETH volatility, the dow was gapping 200-400 points on a regular basis during the financial crisis and the euro debt crisis. I think weekly range is a more accurate indicator of volatility, just look at the huge range weekly bars on the SPX during those tumultuous years.

Not sure where you are getting this from but BOTH the daily AND weekly ATR of ES has gone down significantly from 2008-2011. Trading is mostly a waste of time now since range = profit potential for directional traders and 2012-2013 has very little of that, of course good non-directional...

So you think its perfectly fine to trade without an edge? Its impossible to make money in the long run with no positive expectancy, any short term success will just be fleeting, or what gamblers call luck. Nobody will magically develop an edge over time with the same losing strategy, trading...

No offense but you sound like you are addicted to trading (gambling) or something. There isnt any point in trading if you have no positive expectancy (edge), trading small isnt going to stop you from losing money, its only going to stop you from losing big.

With technical analysis I suppose. From the hourly chart I'm guessing that he probably saw that there was a failure to traverse at the neckline (1640) and concluded that the bottom was in. He changed his mind and cut his losses after it was again breached in the subsequent u turn. The big...

Stopped doing that after that edge was exhausted about 3 years ago, switched to trading the ES after that and I did ok on my first year, the following year (2012) was horrible though. I was getting wild gyrations in my a/c, in the end I was lucky to end in the black for the year, but just barely...

Most would be better off with another profession if they can only make money during the "good years", the good years wont make up for the lost (or negative) income during the bad years. And you are clueless if you think market making is dead and spread trading is dead, investment banks derive...

A typical career is about 30 years, why would anyone categorise 30 yrs as "short run"? By short run I mean a few years, maybe 2-3 years.

Everyone makes a killing when the market is "moving well", the problem is nobody can predict if the market is going to "move well" today or chop the entire day, week or month, you only know that the market is choppy when your trades dont work anymore i.e trades getting stopped out and you lose...

Trading has never been easy, I believe its nearly impossible to make money consistently if you are trading direction with only technical analysis. You are going to be chopped up and spat out by the market if you think its easy. If you are not doing arbitrage, front running, making markets...

Yea its been dead since last year actually, and this is the main reason why I think its better to be flat or long, its foolish to sell a dull market short, you will never win.

FB is a bad example, the stock has been trading sideways to lower since it went public over a year ago, "trend followers" were doing what they had to do - follow the trend. You only know that the trend is higher after the fact, no trader knows if he is buying the top or selling the bottom...

That isnt a pseudo edge, its a real edge and thats how 99% of the profitable market participants make money, the 1% that makes money gambling on direction are merely lucky (for now). There is no edge in betting on direction, because the future cannot be predicted, battles are won before...

I'm long the SPY, and ES is the closest thing to it. Just curious to see if people still trade this thing and if they are doing well. Well I'll go stare at my rock now, you guys have fun. :D

Well trading should be about making money, not about expressing opinions. The ATR of ES is just pathetic now, spreads, comms and slippage are magnified when ATR narrows, making it even more difficult to profit from trading.

ES is a total waste of time, there are other instruments with far more volatility/range if you absolutely must gamb... erm trade. I'd rather go stare at a rock or something than trade this grind fest.

Central banks always win, they have a near perfect track record.

Stocks are directly correlated to bonds/treasuries, commodities have always been a lot more volatile than stocks but that has nothing to do with the fed, its the nature of the beast.

Now you are trolling. We are obviously talking about the broader market, who cares if a few stocks move 50% a day? There will always be such stocks in any market, but they are outliers and not representative of the general market. Market volatility has been on a down trend and its still...

You are going way off topic. We are talking about stocks here. Read the title genius.