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ZN jumped up to 131'20, which is the adjusted high off the September contract and put the yield at 1.75%. That is pretty much close to a top for now. NQ low at 2185 is the June closing low and acting as current support. What a wild night. Bottom of the channel for NQ is at 2150.

Larry McMillan weighs in: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/significant-trading-channel-2011-09-22

Had to check in. NQ overshot my 2228.75 target by a few points, driving on to the 200 ema at 2226. we are bouncing, now 2228.75 needs to hold on any retest. The target would be around 2270. This is getting pretty darn interesting, especially with ZN at 131'060 (1.8%?). But as a rule I don't...

ES support on a further breakdown is 1139.25, for all the night owls.

Not getting down there, ES seems bent on holding 1150 for now and NQ the 2007 highs and any continued downside after 11pm is too trendy and would have to wait for London to reverse, or close to that. Going to bed. Noting that ES has a count of 9 on the RTH hourly descent, so I did not buy puts...

Targeting NQ 2228.75/2231 on any downdraft in the Hong Long session. If that holds, I'm buying. Not valid past 11pm.

AUD/USD could wake up on the Foster deal. Many dividends now paying 3 times treasuries.

Focus will start shifting to earnings pretty soon and away from the circus.

NQ RTH weekly pivot current support, if we lose that we should test the 2235 area, which is also the NDX 2007 highs (yes, we are still above that: 2239 for cash). No panic yet for bulls, but they need to do a post FOMC turnaround.

That would not surprise me.

Most of those predictions have come way down since the August debacle, and retail investors for the most part are not in this market and have not been for some me. Record outflows by them last month as well. They all went into gold. OEX option traders on the other hand have been paring bearish...

Well, I am now flat, no bias into this in the immediate term. ZN overshot 130'285 by a bit, but is now down to 130'195 and TNX above 1.9% again.

:D

Black swans by definition only occur when no one expects them. Too many bears out there so the only black swan I see is a move by SPX to 1400 by year end. Of course that is extreme, but in any case, I don't see a retest of August lows next week. I hope I am right, for the sake of our country...

I don't know about that, but I do know that we have a preponderance of bears and that the volume on 8/5, 8/8 and 8/9 was capitulative and the kind of event that does not occur back to back the next month (maybe 2 months later, but not this month). So there will be strong dip buyers, whether...

In the end, could this be the day that kicks off a VIX drop back below 30? That would easily have ES hit the 1250 area. We will soon find out.

Given the volatility, I would stay flat during the announcement. The huge move in bonds is something to pay attention to and all bets are off at 14:15. Regular patterns from the morning (divergences, etc..) will not be relevant as billions of dollars get adjusted in the markets. I doubt this...

NQ did not make a lower low from the ETH session, while TF and ES did. That should put to rest any doubt that NQ is the leader, both up or down. I am pretty sure I introduced that trading concept a few months ago here, and it has rarely failed.

Maybe headed to 1.8%, in which case that would put ZN around 131'205, a short.

New all time low for TNX, at 1.87%. ZN tags 130'280. Somehow I get the feeling that bond buyers could get creamed, but we shall see.