Search results

Lowered US and World carryout on corn couldn't push the market higher. Lowered those carryouts by around 2.5% or so, and we couldn't even sustain a 2 or 3 cent pop. Corn is so range bound right now, unreal.

Any thoughts before the WASDE report this morning?

Ok, so it was the cutout price. It was hard to discern that from the language used in the news bit.

Yeah, that is definitely a typo.

TraD: Maybe I am not understanding what you are asking. For example, last week cattle traded in Kansas for $161.50. You might see a $1 to $2 difference in other areas, but not a $100 dollar difference. There is also the price of the cutout, which is somewhere around $250. That is...

Yeah, I saw that LEJ-LEM spread come back this morning. That range is pretty strong. It may take the futures chasing the cash to pop out of that range. TraD: I'm not an expert, but I can tell you what I know. Cash trade is pretty localized from the feedlots to the packers/slaughterers...

How's it going today for everyone? USDA March WASDE report out tomorrow. Repositioning today before the report?

Oh man, I feel your pain on that cattle spread. That was a violent pullback.

I don't really trade flys that much, but I see you guys talking about them. May have to start following them more. That cattle spread is getting hammered right now, down to around $7.57, whew. Not sure if I would want to touch it now.

That spread was range bound from 6.60 to 8.00 for the past month or so. I think it could be headed to 9.00 or so. Might get a pullback to around 8.00. There is some decent volume in it for a cattle spread. That heating oil spread has come off to around .016 or so, pretty close to my price...

The LEJ - LEM spread is breaking out above the resistance around $8 now. Should be interesting to see what happens with it today.

FCX: You are correct, I was incorrectly using the Platts heating oil contract in the margin system.

That HO spread is coming off, just broke through the support around .025. Not the best feeling when you watch a trade go your way that you didn't put on. FCX, did you get $3k for the margin on that April-May HO spread, or was that HO v. RB? I used the CME Core Margin calculator, that's what...

LEJ - LEM pulled back a bit to around $7.42 today. Not sure where it really goes from here. I know this is an ag trade idea forum, but I really like shorting the April heating oil contract, long the May. About $250 in margin to hold. It exploded last week on the cold weather on the East...

FCX, you got it right. The cash trade between the packers and the feedlots was around $159 to $160, a premium of around $8 to the LEJ contract. That gap narrowed today on the around $2 rise in the futures. There was a huge gap between the front month on the feeder cattle contract and the...

You know, that spread is a weird one. It did make a move up, but is somewhat stalled out around $8. My very incomplete quantitative analysis of that spread seems to indicate that the spread is somewhat mean reverting. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback to around $7.30 or so. If it did...

Soybeans taking some off today after a strong rally last week based on the Brazil strike. Still tough to say whether that is having any substantial impact on the Brazil harvest.

The boss where I work thinks long April Live Cattle, short June Live Cattle is the way to go right now. Feb Live cattle comes off the board tomorrow. The cash trade is hanging in around $160 w/ the feedlots and packers. LEJ is at $149, about 11 below the cash trade. I like the idea, 'cause...

Brazilian trucker strike blew the top out of this bean market. Once again, the cash basis does not seem to be following. The fundamentals still appear bearish, but w/ no one to sell into the rally, it could keep going here.

Yeah, soy meal is tough right now. Ag resources is saying that Brazilian soymeal is at a $60 per metric ton discount to the U.S., and that it is profitable for those in the southeast near ports to import soy meal from Brazil. Simple supply and demand would seem to dictate there would be at...