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I am looking forward to the first 6 months. My personal bet is that we may see very similar pattern to 2006 unless housing sector completely crashes (which is unlikely), i.e. rates up with even deeper inversion than last year. First 2 weeks will be particularly juicy. There may be some buying...

what do you try to say? Are you one of those smart conspiracy theorists?

Well, he was and he wasn't - depends what you want to hear. One thing is certain: almost all of the speech was devoted to housing + he mentioned downside risk to it. That was relatively atypical for him. At the same time he mentioned inflation only briefly at the end - but that's where a lot of...

Lacker was the reason...

yes - restarting TWS helps almost always.

crap system down london

Amen

what are these numbers? bonuses as a percentage of base? That would be quite low in fact....and really skewed.

doubt it - these numbers are just final corrections to what everybody already knows (this is their 3rd release)

I would also add an option "I don't know" or "I don't care" For many people it is going to be a true statement. For instance I use the cheapest broker for my purposes (global macro) so whatever the commission are I will pay them. As long as I make money who gives a **** if you lose a bit on...

Ok. I almost thought that there are people on ET working for these suckers.

Well, I agree that risk/reward ratio got out of proportion a bit. But I do not believe in any doomsday scenarios - of course spreads are going to go wider one day. But the market is nowadays very deep and all will go smoothy - just recall how invisible the last few big defaults were. And in some...

this is actually pretty tough site - probably barely legal. check this out: http://www.halturnershow.com/AdviceForLoneWolves.html

what does this add "FOR WHITES ONLY" mean?

lol - this is really good. Armageddon on monday... of course it is bullshit - that's the last thing China wants - to kill off their customers.

I agree with your volume comment - it was massive. I also agree with the short covering mentioned by Lance (unfortunately I was part of it). I just do not get the price action - every day in the past year you would never see selling into these data - maybe PIMCOs Bunds selling was the partial...

Not really sure what you try to imply with convexity effects. As for structured credit you are a bit behind the curve - Treasuries are recently rarely used because you are not be able to give competitive pricing with Tsy collateral (at least for correlation products). Today with spreads that...

Thanks for an insightful tip (definitelly better than when somebody just says that he bought when things went up and sold when thing went down...) From what you say it looks like pretty boring week in front of us....

well thank you sherlock :) your statement was true during the past 6 months as well and rates were going down despite worse inflation numbers than today... The question for me is how to fit today's action into the recent (1month, 6 months or whatever) trading pattern.

Did he say why he thinks that? Strange day - probably the most bond-bullish number in the past year and it ends up as a non-event....