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+1. not much to add here. but ultimately anything can happen if/when armagedon arrives...

personally I never understood the mantra that EUR should go down on European problems. that may be true in the limit (total EUR collapse) but any exit of a weak member (read weak fiscally AND externally) should send EUR higher. after all EU is not a trade deficit block (while US is)... p.s...

when i have too much cash and worry about sizeable sell-off i usually buy something like VXX rather than TLT... but it is probably matter of taste rather than anything fundamental. indeed i always hated to be long treasuries - if only for the philosophical reasons...:) p.s. of course VXX...

fair enough. did not intend to fight anyway :)

nb. ( Why exactly did my risk go up? that was an assumption i used for convenience - not a corollary of some specific event.) a. so you say stops define your risk - that is funny. stops may define how much you lose (assuming no slippage) but they have nothing to do with risk. i guess all...

you obviously didn't understand it. let's say you have 10 trades on and something big unexpected happens - markets start to be volatile, your risk goes up. you need to cut some trades immediately - which ones do you exit? those with more or less conviction? or do you keep all and hedge...

well that certainly is a difference between us. if i have a bias i never trade against it - at worst i am flat. it is very difficult to stay with the trade which is against your convictions to start with when the going gets tougher...

only because the SNB front-runned the announcement...

for myself i do not like to be contrarian only for the sake of being contrarian... it is good to know what events drive your trade, e.g. spain's exit, etc to be able to size your trade - that's what i was (vainly) asking about...

what is your macro thinking behind shorting EURCHF?

that's a good nonsense. the first thing you want to do as a CB trying to defend a peg is to blow out your credibility...

for starters the CDS usually covers debt issued by Japan in major currencies while the yield used in ZH article is just using JPY JGBs. If there is a default it is conceivable local ccy holder will be treated preferentially - therefore CDS on just JPY JGB debt would trade much lower...taking...

i have this schmuck on ignore for some time and the thread is much more enjoyable... BTW, thanks for keeping this journal Daal. quite a few enjoyable posters here. maybe it is a good idea to post more of your live trades with thinking behind it - it is your journal after all...

well i am glad that at least someone sees it as bullish - i was happy not to see in the speech any direct threat about FX intervention but the usual mentions of export competitiveness keeps me nervous...

+1

:D LOL. I guess they do not fight as hard as Russians do...

most of it was answered by Martinghoul already. but also you could go for strong German exporters to Asia (e.g. BMW) or even German utilities (e.g. RWE). the later has the advantage that it is cheaper...

:confused:

if EUR goes to hell you want to get your monies converted into DEM. The best way to assure of that is to own the German debt. DEM has a huge trade (favorable) imbalance and should get stronger compared to other EUR components - similar to what CHF would do. i am baffled why one need 1 page of...

:D