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If you look at it from a long term growth standpoint, the market has never not recovered from a big selloff. So assuming you believe we will hit new highs between now and when you need to withdraw the cash, then sure its a great time. But you got to be in it for the long haul and need to...

Ha it took a lot less than 11 months. Looks like your next target is 2650 I agree in the short term which is why the market is tanking. But longer duration supply chains will open back up and people will just live with the risk of the virus.

I took a mild bullish position in the ES just after the equity market closed today. I think the probability of a surprise rate cut is very likely this weekend. Jerome hinted at it today. The Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 100% probability that by the March 18th FOMC meeting, they will cut...

So you’re telling us the move from 180 to 1000 in 8 months was natural organic growth but going from 1000 to 650 is manipulation?

If you trade on Thinkorswim, under the chat room options go to the room called Global News. It’s the best free real time news feed I could find. It’s a chat bot run through Ransquawk.

The problem is most countries aren’t even testing for cases or if they are, they’re not publicizing the results. It has a 2-3% fatality rate from the known numbers while the flu has .1%. It was clear from the President’s press conference that they want to downplay the issue so the public does...

Currently we've seen a 9.5% selloff from its peak, with the Coronavirus being an ongoing source of news to fuel the fire. The aggressiveness of this downmove is very similar to Feb 2018 and Jan 2016. The SPX has already had a 4 standard deviation move for this week and the week only half over...

Or you could ask to bust the trade entirely

TD Ameritrade

Who's your broker and whats the ticker symbol you're trying to trade?

Now that the scary day is over (or fun day depending on your perspective), whats your plan on the naked puts? Did you close out or hold?

Closed trade 9 for a quick buck: tIP SOLD -1 BUTTERFLY SPX 100 (Weeklys) 28 FEB 20 3295/3270/3245 PUT @2.90 CBOE +$130.84 Profit Starting Balance: $1001.75 Current Balance: $1783.83 Cumulative PnL: $782.08 = Account up 78.07%

Nope in this journal these are just the flies by themselves. The ES hedge is a trade I sometimes do in my other account but for the purposes of this journal, my Roth isn’t approved for futures and in order for my broker to allow futures trading in my Roth, I need to bring up the equity to $25k...

SPCE recently IPO'd which makes trading options on it difficult. IV is through the roof and there's a lot of hype behind its name. With most IPO's, the hype dies off within a few months. Trading option spreads somewhat defeat the purpose for a ticker like SPCE because you want to take advantage...

I agree with this. Its worth noting, if you believe the rally in gold is due to an expectation of a rate cut then there's a high probability gold will continue to rally for a number of months. The CME Group runs probabilities based on the pricing of fed fund futures. Theres an 11% chance the fed...

Yea I sell cash secured puts as well but your goal is to be long the stock, OP said he doesn't have the funds to let the contracts exercise.

Look at the IV skew of the option leg relative to the other legs of the spread. If you're trading a call spread where you're buying a 10% IV call and selling a 12% IV call, the skew is in your favor. You'll be paying less extrinsic premium on the 10% IV long strike and you're selling more...

They'll come after him like any other lender would if he defaulted on a loan. Fortunately there's no collateral so they can't take his house or his wife but they will fuck his credit. Luckily margin defaults can be erased through bankruptcy.

Why would you sell naked puts on tech when the markets clearly in a bubble? Vol is still fairly low so you're not getting paid enough premium to offset the risk. The only time I would sell naked puts is if you are using that to finance other trades. Such as selling GOOG 1000 strike puts to...

Can you replicate the results? Usually closing and reopening excel fixes any broken data that shows values of N/A for me but I've never had any misprints where the data is just incorrect as your picture suggests.