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Well I don’t believe you can tell the difference on a trade by trade basis. But if you can maintain profitability over a statistically significant period of time, then you can increase your confidence level. Even then, you cannot be 100% certain. Neke’s journal’s are a great example of...

So does every lucky trade.

Initial Capital (2/10/2012) $30,000 Total Net Profit $5,271.76 (Per Share) $0.36 Gross Profit $7,333.88 Gross Loss ($2,062.12) Profit Factor 3.56 Total Number of Trades 406 Percent Profitable 77.83% Winning Trades 316 Losing Trades 90 Avg. Trade Net Profit $12.98 Avg. Winning...

I have been following from the beginning. I feel a sound strategy should be capturing market moves based on mass human behavior. I bet you could reverse your rules and still get similar results. I don’t want newbees to think this strategy should pass for a viable system. It reminds me of...

I think with realistic fills, the happy face would be a sad face...just sayin'. This seems to me to be an exercise in futility.

What are you using to factor in comm. and slippage? It would be enlightening to post results with and without these.

I stopped out on XLE for a 1K gain. If I want a home run on a large position, I will need to learn more patience. At any rate, I don’t like the resistance here at 1400 S&P and the fact that May is approaching. Exposure is much more comfortable here. I opened a 100 share SDS position at...

I swung back to net profitability on unrealized gains today. The SDS position I opened at yesterday’s close was exited at today’s open. My rule is that when unrealized gains return to > 0, then any SDS hedge is closed if I haven’t already taken profits, as I figure the market is...

I just heard that AAPL beat earnings estimates after hours. My 4 shares are up over 7% AH. What clear thinking speculator would be selling into the recent retreat before earnings of AAPL shares? Apple is notorious for beating estimates. XLE showed some strength today, albeit on lighter...

I closed out my SDS hedge for a $103 gain. So far recent gains on SDS have totaled $233. It is not providing much hedging due to relatively small size, but it has helped cover commissions! I added 200 shares XLE for a rather large exposure in the energy sector. I was down $800 at the open...

Initial Capital (2/10/2012) $30,000 Total Net Profit $2,968.43 (Per Share) $0.23 Gross Profit $5,531.21 Gross Loss ($2,562.78) Profit Factor 2.16 Total Number of Trades 372 Percent Profitable 74.46% Winning Trades 277 Losing Trades 95 Avg. Trade Net Profit $7.98 Avg. Winning...

From what I gather, a large percentage gain relative to the norm, could hurt your Sharpe ratio as much as a large draw down, because Sharpe does not distinguish plus from minus. So what is the use? It gives you a false sense of security. Just ask Madoff’s investors.

I am sitting on a considerable loss on TSO, which is in the oil and gas sector. News of labor strikes are weighing on it no doubt. I will likely exit with a loss on it. I wish to hold XLE until at least the end of the month. The chart looks much like last April, where after a selloff in...

Initial Capital (2/10/2012) $30,000 Total Net Profit $2,686.95 (Per Share) $0.22 Gross Profit $5,054.19 Gross Loss ($2,367.23) Profit Factor 2.14 Total Number of Trades 351 Percent Profitable 74.64% Winning Trades 262 Losing Trades 89 Avg. Trade Net Profit $7.66 Avg. Winning...

When I crawled out of bed at 10am, I was pleased to see my NW up $1600 from yesterday’s close. I am going to let my XLE position ride to shoot for bigger gains on the energy sector. I will trail a stop below key support levels. I am still leery of the markets as May approaches. This could...

I realized a nice gain from an AH bounce on an earnings beat from OI. I am underwater by $600 on XLE with 550 shares. Don’t plan to add more unless there is some serious blood letting. After this, I really need to concentrate on eliminating the urge to take large individual positions, even...

That is what I see too looking at the floor trader pivots.

Sure, here is the Turtle System: //heres the complete code to the 20-day strategy. //again, make sure you allow for *4* multiple entries //when *generated by different orders* in the "strategy properties". //also, on the "DV = (N*10000) * 10;" line, you have to change the "10000" //to...

Here are current holdings. I forgot to mention that I snapped up some country ETFs as well, but within strategy position size limits.

Initial Capital (2/10/2012) $30,000 Total Net Profit $2,157.53 (Per Share) $0.21 Gross Profit $3,784.60 Gross Loss ($1,627.06) Profit Factor 2.33 Total Number of Trades 302 Percent Profitable 72.85% Winning Trades 220 Losing Trades 82 Avg. Trade Net Profit $7.14 Avg. Winning...