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Coinbase bonds yielding 9.9% at .60 on the dollar. Maybe just distressed selling in an illiquid bond market but I think that might be a better bet than the equity. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/coinbase-crypto-debt-russia-bonds-price-sink-yields-2022-5

Other natural resources, important minerals, ag related stuff, farmland, defense, cyber security, energy security, building domestic production capacity, deglobalization, to name a few. Even if the Ukraine conflict ends fairly quickly, these concerns of security and national self sufficiency...

CAPE is a slow and long term smoothed measure so not particularly precise or tactical. 2008 should already be dropped with latest decade being 2009-2018. 25 year average of CAPE is pretty much the internet era where valuations overall have elevated upwards. This may be a permanent structural...

I have to respectfully disagree (not trying to start an argument). The probability of a Chinese government falling and its President ending up imprisoned or executed due to an economic downturn resulting from trade conflict initiated by the US or any other country is near 0%. The probability...

President Trump is treating the Chinese government like he might treat a business competitor under the mistaken idea that this is a simple negotiation with the usual economic rationales at work. China has always played a very long game. Trump has a maximum limit of 6 years to "win" this...

It might be worth mentioning that Buffett's long term strategy and enormous asset base make it difficult to be very nimble. Selling a large, long term position and paying the tax means Berkshire would need a break of at least 10-15% in the price just to offset the tax hit, and that assumes...

Are all of these inverse vol ETFs going to be upside down with vix up over 100% in one day?

Not sure how I missed it--need a bigger phone screen I guess. Reinforces your comment: "Stop and really look at the historical results." Thanks for that.

Very helpful from a big picture perspective. If you have the actual data points, I'd be curious to know what percentage fall in the extreme joint categories of "Strong Bull/Very Volatile" and "Strong Bear/Quiet" since most of us would consider those to be non-standard conditions.

You could simply use the opening price in lieu of a discrete timed range or maybe add a symmetrical volatility band around the Open price as your range. Just know that it is a shortcut that will sacrifice the data contained in accurate opening ranges where the initial opening price is skewed...

I'll add this to the alt currency discussion since I found it interesting and illuminating in terms of some of the details regarding security and market structure that aren't necessarily obvious to low tech people like myself. https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-113-benjamin-small/

An interesting study would be a comparison of the high/low distributions using traditional opening times against various secondary times or random times and determining if there is much difference. Might also be interesting to see if the importance of the traditional opens at setting highs/lows...

Go away for 1 week and come back to a month's worth of great posts on this thread! Catching up and throwing in two cents this morning. I think 10AM Eastern time corresponds to the 3PM London gold fixing which may help explain that spike. Mav and others have discussed various times for...

Interesting charts. I have a file of old charts that showed a similar effect for Monday vs the rest of the week. It was consistent across a very broad basket of futures with no deviations. I don't remember where I got them from unfortunately. I'd be curious to know if the effect within your...

Interesting dichotomy between the futures and underlying index. Cash Index charts will never reflect the violent overnight move--yesterday just looks like a slightly lower opening and straight up on a daily bar. Which is the tail and which is the dog?

Mav, Thanks again (and again and again) for the education . What am I to make of the H/J 2018 spread trading around 50 cents the last few days? Is that normal?

Got it. Now I am really interested to see your convexity curve work.

I'll pile on...would like to see the convexity curve. Are we now looking at a range of .26 to .30 as the flat price works higher? Anyone have a historical perspective on how wide the spread has gotten at extremes?

https://imx.tdameritrade.com/imx/p/imx-pub Ameritrade investors make largest single-month increase in equity exposure since TD began tracking the IMX about 5 years ago.

Do any of you have any experience or thoughts to share on the value of researching longer term number lines in the range of 60-130 days that might correspond with quarterly and semi-annual levels? From a trading standpoint, it seems way too slow but I thought it might have value in uncovering...