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That's why I made the distinction between gambling games WITH KNOWN NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY and trading, where expectancy can be positive or negative, depending on the skill of the trader. In games with known negative expectancy, there is no possibility of future changes which would create positive...

I agree with this. There are mathematical proofs that certain gambling games will never results in positive expectancy, but there are trading methods which can show positive expectancy over hundreds or thousands of trades. The main problem with the OP's question, of course, is that you...

Yes, but no Wall Street banks valued on the order of trillions of dollars in market cap, which, if their trading operations were truly that spectacular, one would expect to see. Not being part of the Wall Street crowd, my goal in trading is to be "the smartest dumb money", but that doesn't...

Yeah, I know that liquidity would be an obstacle at some point, but one would still expect that, all things being equal, there would be a fund out there that was larger than all others by a significant amount, if they could do this consistently. Also, one would assume that the method for picking...

Conceptually, I don't think any market action is "noise" since it all gets put into consideration in my setups, but 90% of it is not "actionable" at the level I want to take action. My average winning trade is about 7 ES points and I enter only after a move has started and never try to pick the...

I think that there is more luck than intelligence involved because obviously no one does this consistently. Why do I say "obviously"? Because if someone could do it consistently, that person would eventually become a trillionaire. Since there are no trillionaires walking around, I assume no one...

Thanks. I've got a method for dealing with the fluctuations in volatility throughout the day, so that I'm always comparing apples to apples when it comes to price action. The specific problem I'm trying to solve is the one of "false positive" trade triggers in the context of a change in the...

For me, entries are the same. It's stop movement and exits that differ.

Thanks. From your response I see that the numberline is probably not going to work intraday because I don't think there is anything consistently important about the beginning of an hour, although it is true that the larger fluctuations tend to happen in the time just after the turn of the hour...

Well, "macro" can also just refer to covering a large number of time units, even if the time units themselves are relatively small, e.g. hourly bars, or refer to simply a timeframe higher than the one you trade in, e.g. a daily indicator for someone who day trades, but I see your point. I...

This is a great thread and I was hoping someone who's read the book already can answer this question for me. Can the "numberline" concept be applied on any timeframe or is it meant to apply only to the "macro" timeframe?

One of the best tools I've developed for filtering trades is an adjustment factor based on time of day. That thing keeps me out of fake moves all the time and let's me trade 24/7 without worrying about the discrepancy between AH and RTH. Unless you're the kind of trader who's looking to catch a...

The trick to trading is to develop a strategy which FORCES you in to the market before the bulk of the move you are want to catch is done. Not that you will be profitable on every trade or every trad will be a huge winner when it is profitable, but you will catch all of the market's "fat tails"...

Yes, trading hours are for trading and after-hours and weekends are for reflecting on the results and testing changes.

I agree that if you "subjectively" try to pick only the winners, you will end up trading away the edge. However, adding an additional variable with predictive power, e.g. a filter based on an objective factor which is either present or absent at the time your original strategy's trades gets...

I started a thread along these same lines and got some good responses: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=219746 Seemed like the consensus was that a good trader will be a good trader regardless of techniques and what you need to do is find what works for you and your...

I have been a long-time supporter of libertarianism in politics. I think that the libertarians should take over the GOP, though, as a matter of tactics, rather than be a separate party, just like the Communists have taken over the Democratic party. The problem with the GOP is that it talks...

The fluctuations have a specific logic, but it isn't based on calendar months, even though they can have marginal importance in determining entry points. Right now, I don't see any logical reason to be short on any timeframe that sounds relevant to you, although both the Daily and Weekly are a...

"The market will fluctuate". I heard a guy who was a bit more than a paper tiger said that once. No, really, what's your question? You've presented a lot of statistics about history and all, but in reality the market is more like a living creature than a machine. About the only thing that...

And if the speculators didn't want the physical oil, I'm sure you could sell it for whatever the post-expiration price was and pocket even more cash for your oil. The OP is completely out to lunch, yet fully representative of those who would make decisions on behalf of us all.