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2013 peak 11/30/2013 30 day SD: 9.64% 365 day SD: 6.38% 2017 peak 12/16/2017 30 day SD: 6.13% 365 day SD: 4.68% 2021 peak 4/15/2021 30 day SD: 2.37% 365 day SD: 3.47% Vol at the peak of the market has declined every cycle. Also, its further evidence that in 2021 there were never the excesses...

In addition to that, I also run some calculations on BTC vol Looks like it is decreasing overtime to me

In his book Spitznagel tried to distance himself from Taleb quite a bit, which I found quite surprising He says Taleb was hired in a "stricly-hands off, passive capacity". He also said his time with Taleb at Empirica (their previous hedge fund) was the lowest return of his career "before or...

Looks pretty discounted to me. Also, as a rule in exponential investments, I find it better to be too early than to be too late

https://ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometrics-volatility-squeeze

I bought a Keepkey hardware wallet a couple months ago for like $60, just for test purposes. I did my testing and was not even using the device anymore. Today I found out they are airdropping tokens associated with Shapeshift (the software used to interact with Keepkey) and owners of Keepkey get...

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ark-funds-are-offloading-their-exposure-china-based-equities I cant help but to wonder if this will mark the bottom on China tech, the Wood bottom

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-09/binance-booms-as-nomad-crypto-exchange-outside-nations-reach?srnd=premium A big question in the crypto space is: when are governments will try to arrest CZ

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rai_stones If that can be money, why bitcoin cant?

In my mind they are very different. And BTC's and ETH's are very similar. In open source crypto currency projects monetary policy is held by a "social contract" https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/03/23/legitimacy.html BTC's 21M hard cap, is not really that hard, it can actually be modified by a...

All Sectors Debt Securities and Loans as a % of Nominal GDP in the US (I think that is the same as the Total Credit Market debt as a % of GDP charts) The 'beautiful' deleveraging from 2008 to 2019 was interrupted by Covid sending it to higher levels than ever before

EIP1559 I think is fantastic because as the world gets tokenized and traded on a DEX in Ethereum, that will make the protocol more valuable. Even if people never hoard that much ETH. Imagine if the stocks traded on the NYSE and tokenized and traded on Uniswap, all that daily activity will...

On 2) I think ETH's approach is better and BTC's 0% long-term inflation could actually be very problematic. ETH's approach is 'we dont know what is the right inflation rate for a crypto protocol over the long-term, so we will implement minimal viable issuance and change the inflation rate as...

They could also buy ETH but ETH suffers from some issues that makes it less attractive then BTC for this particular purpose. Its less liquid and its more volatile, its also hasn't been around as long and its harder to understand. BTC is the least volatile (other than stablecoins) and most liquid...

These asset managers will continue to look for alternative currencies in order to hedge the fiat debasement that is going on, they might face the following choices -Bitcoin, that could bring the benefits mentioned above -Gold, that has been langlishing despite all the debt and fiat issuance that...

I also did the following backtest, I locked the stock allocation at 30% and of bonds at 50% and asked Excel Solver to tell me what was the ideal allocation between T-Bills, Gold and Bitcoin that maximized the MAR Ratio (CAGR/Max DD, my favorite metric). It was Bills at 11%, Bitcoin at 9% and...

I have been running some backtests on Bitcoin and asset allocation and found this A 60/40 Bond/Stock portfolio from 2012 to 2021 would have had the following risk adjusted returns (with monthly rebalancing) Sortino ratio 0.4273 MAR Ratio (CAGR/Max DD) 1.24 MaxDD -4.22% CAGR 0.43% (monthly real...

https://cryptomode.com/internet-computer-icp-has-retraced-96-since-its-all-time-high/ ICP (The internet computer) seems to fail the legitimacy by fairness test https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/03/23/legitimacy.html I was considering putting a small position on it but the more I think about...

A potential threat to the US dollar and the UST bond as a reserve asset: EU bonds (NGEU bonds) https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/06/24/the-international-role-of-the-euro

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-cycles-over-last-500-years-ray-dalio/ How countries lose reserve status