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What a load of crap !!! Each subsequent flip is mutually exclusive of the previous one. Its a 50% flip every time regardless of how many flips you take. Doubling, tripling, etc is a famous method that some casino players used to "guarantee" breakeven . In practise, however, the moment you...

Please explain EXACTLY what you are referring to and what the trade is. We can then see how you did on Tuesday and if you followed your own advice. For example, S&P 500 rises 0.5% premarket you will sell short "Security A".

I don't think trading simply based on changes to Index levels is anything more then a guessing game. Let's suppose that Oil, Silver, and Copper all go up PreMarket Tueday ( popping recent highs to new levels ). In that scenario, increasing your shorts on Tuesday morning is a recipe to lose...

Stock dispersion measures past time periods and does not measure what occurs moving forward. The fact it is at an all time lows should tell you it will likely rise now as the indexes have been going nowhere all year ( they are in a channel ). The market going up is simply a retracement (...

Ok, you said 9600 will become 9000 and maybe 8000. So now its 10500, you lost 9% on your theory in short order if its just index investments, much worse if you bought stocks or options. So now what. Tell me what the index will be end of next week, end of the month, end of the year. If you...

Ok I looked at a few posts on this thread and two of the main reasons you lose money are obvious. 1. Your automated trades lose money on the small sample I looked at. This suggests two things. One, the rules you use to determine what to automate are wrong. Two, you...

I agree but I wonder if the author of the thread truly understands that there are real edges in trading that you can profit on in the long run.

In 3 months I will quote your post here and we can comment on the S&P 500 level at that point ( that's December 1st, 2010 ). I can't wait to hear your excuses why you are so out of touch with the market conditiions in 2010.

You seem to be out of touch with what the market is doing. At what point do you start looking at M&A activity ( eg Potash, Intel ) and actual earnings ( eg TD Bank today ) and understand that those two areas signal a whole lot of market strength you have missed in your analysis. I just don't...

Neke might perform better if he starts a new thread next year, "Taking 41k to $4.10 BY Year End 2011". The whole idea of making 1000% return just because you want to suggests exactly why Neke doesn't invest well. However, this in itself makes it fairly educational, the question is at what point...

I just wanted to know when the "crash" was. This thread is littered with daily conformations of how the market is dropping, I provided a "contrarian" outlook. Sorry it upset you "adolescent andy".

I trade the TSX its real strong still with support from Canadian banks and resource stocks. I can't see any real reason for it to go down prior to April 2011. Anythings possible I guess even permabears like you have to be right occasionally. Its just not likely right now.

You must have got hammered on the market today with that overdone negative bias. You seem to see only "scary indications" and ignore real news like the Canadian banks reporting strong earnings again.

Excuse me, but it was very obvious in Spring 2009 that the market was oversold and any real smart money participated in that market. Anyone who sat on cash throughout one of the biggest bull markets in our lifetime ( March 2009-December 2009 ) was a fool to do so. In fact, I believe the...

One of the worst timed posts ever on here. Almost every stock I follow rallied 5%+ the rest of the day. Every sign is a bottom was found and many buyers were waiting for this opportunity to buy up quality. Nevertheless, I am still puzzled when the "crash" you called occurred. I see no crash.

Your post is illogical it is not me making grandiose predictions about market direction. What "book" are you talking about I trade long and short almost every day ( the US market has been in a channel all year ). In fact, a market crash would be highly profitable for me, but I think it is...

The percentages were referring to the stock price moves of course you can make a lot more on the options if you guess the direction right AND ( key point here ) have the discipline to sell. I'm also basing it on Friday's stock market close. So tell us now. 1. Did you buy the options...

The risk/reward involved with this trade doesn't make it "easy". The best you can do short term is 12%, and that's assuming the entire premium on the offer disappears. So maybe 10% is more likely. Could you lose 10% ? That would be POT at $162/share which is not out of the question given that...

Call me a cynic but you sound like someone shorting the market like crazy and getting frustrated you are getting nowhere fast. I suspect if you are fully invested in this religon you will be squeezed hard ( again ) in the next few months. I will say the US economy is far weaker then the World...

Ok, my mistake a correction is often a 5-10% drop over a short time period ( but often longer then a day ). However, my point is crashes are not that frequent and given that we basically had a market meltdown ending around March 2009 it is highly unlikely we get a crash any time soon. My...