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Mortgage rates at 8.5%? Who exactly would be able to afford such a rate? If rates hit 8.5%, you could bet the housing market would be in a perma recession. Not to mention the entire economy. DOW 15,000? Not for at least another 15-20 years. The DOW is at 10,000 now and look at the...

When the housing bubble finally pops in this country it will be messy. People everywhere act as if housing prices only go up 10-20% a year. This has been re inforced by books like Rich Dad Poor Dad, by the media, and by peoples short term memories (conveniently forgetting the real estate crash...

"Did I not say in my other posts that lowering the Discount Rate was simply for announcement effect??? Does that statement not imply that the Fed can do other things to affect the economy and they are letting us know our sentiment. Have you done an analysis of Fed OMO and the Msupply, exchange...

"And for crying out loud. The discount rate that fed produces really has no direct effect on the market it is just an announcement statistic that gives the market a clue as to the sentiment of the Fed. AND ANYONE THAT HAS EVER TAKEN A MACROECONOMICS CLASS WOULD KNOW FOR A FACT THAT USING FISCAL...

Where is inflation in the consumer sector? For one, the Govt has a huge incentive to cheat on the CPI numbers every month that gauge the "official inflation rate". When inflation is down, it looks good politically, it saves them money on Social Security CPI adjusted payment increases, etc...

I don't own any gold or gold shares. Supply and demand is not as favorable today compared to the 60's before gold skyrocketed. Setting the price at $35 an ounce was a great way to reduce the incentive for people to mine for gold. So supply was flat to down while demand kept going up (in part due...

I normally laugh at these gold bug, "the sky is falling, gold is going to $50,000 an ounce" type articles, but I thought this arguement was interesting: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_03/hommel110603.html From 1998 to 2003, M3 has jumped from $5,700 billion to $8,900 while gold has...

Has Network TV ever been this bad? "Creativity" at the major networks is no where to be found. It seems like all NBC can do is to put hot young women in glass containers filled with water, snakes and chocolate covered cockroaches. What entertainment! I'm suprised at how long the networks have...

IMO, GDP is wildly overrated. Japan has had net positive GDP growth during the 1990's. Yet their economy was a joke. Record unemployment, record bankruptcies, deflation, banks wiped out, etc. It meant nothing. During the 1970's in the US, GDP was again net positive. But what does it mean...

Supply and Demand looks good for gold (but certainly nothing like the 1970's). From what I've read, gold exploded in the 1970's, simply due to supply and demand. Supply had been going down due to less mining, and less interest in gold (thanks to the US govts knucklehead decision to keep the...

I've got access to Lexis Nexus and I'm wondering if there are any good daily periodicals that can gauge the general interest level of commodities? For example, Natural Gas went through the roof earlier this year hitting $10. It looks like a Nasdaq chart circa 1999. I want to find out what the...

There will be new unknowable innovations in the future. But those won't be of much help to a stagnant US economy and society. The US in the 20th century was simply better positioned than its rivals to become a world economic power. We borrowed huge sums of money in the 19th century and invested...

Great thread. Here are some large macro questions on my mind: The Dollar is the huge question entering into the 21st century. There is no way around it. The whole world is leaning towards the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world. Remember the pound sterling use to occupy this...

Rogers isn't in the same ballpark as those guys. From reading his books, I take it he made something like $10 million in the early 80's after leaving Soros. Say $20 m on the high side. Even if you compound that at 15-20% per year, he may end up at what, the low 9 figures (say 100-200 m). Hard to...

This is the funniest news story I've seen all week. Westside liquor, lol. Getting your neighborhood addicted to crack. Just insane. Black leaders play the "outraged" part well. Too bad they aren't equally as outraged at Eminem, Snop Dog, and all those other crazy rappers who talk about stuff...

My trading odyssey started back in 1998. Wade Cook of all people got me interested in trading options. JDSU, ARBA, National Discount brokers, real networks, you remember the stocks. Trading was interesting, fun and profitable. I had a solid strategy, I had an edge, things were looking good. Like...

Illegal immigration is something so polarizing for politicians, they just sweep it under the rug. Better to pander to the latino vote than dare stand up and take a stand and say, "enough is enough, let's put american citizens first." If any 2004 presidential candidate has the guts to address...

W is treading on very thin ice come next november. If the economy gets any worst (which I think it will by then), virtually any democrat will win. Even if the economy some how avoids: Housing bubble collapse Consumer spending collapse Dollar collapse More job losses It won't be a...

I've seen the Seigfred and Roy show. He's not an ass entertainer. I think he genuinely cares about and likes animals and those white tigers recieve better treatment than 99% of all animals in existance anywhere. At the mirage, there is an area where some white tigers roam around, just off...

Jenny Lopez has done some brilliant PR moves in her career: The Grammy Versace dress, the one that created an uproar, took her career to the next level. It is undeniable. Remember when Jen was simply known for her Big Booty and bronx background? That dress was the turning point for her...