Search results

I suppose you asking me to reveal in a public trading forum what I have found after spending thousands in real tests, not backtests. Just by saying so is already revealing enough. Your task now is to find the way yourself...

The statement that backtesting on past data is all we have to deal with the future is based on the informal fallacy of the excluded alternative. It is true that for most people this is the only alternative but there are other, more sophisticated choices.

You too! Just having a conversation Maverick74. No intentions to hurt feelings. If you come back would like to hear from you how you define an edge.

It's a fitted system. No question about it and any claim to the contrary is ludicrous. It's doing well because market conditions haven't changed. When they do the equity curve will go straight down. So I hope you know that and you'll be careful with your money.

+1 +1 QA also "works" because <1% of it works but it is not the current state I believe as the majority of traders are using s&r, patterns and moving averages. If you are not convinced pay a visit o quantopia or stocktwits. You will have a lot of fun...

Validation on historical data does not guarantee future profitability.

I don't think I'm confused at all. You wrote a full page to argue against what I wrote but you still did not provide a definition of an edge. You just used a false dichotomy, as Kut2k2 said, to make some point but your point is subjective and the way you perceive things. Mathematically speaking...

Keep it simple. The more maths you add, the lower the signal to noise ratio will be. NNs for example fit equations to noise. GPs are even worse and many poor souls are using these stupid tools because of the hype and lack of understanding of data mining bias. Any system found by such tools has...

How so Maverick? Negative expectancy means no edge. Therefore, and directly so, expectancy has been used to determine, maybe is more correct to say, the possibility of an edge. The effort to do that goes beyond expectancy but it starts from there. The point I'm trying to make is that expectancy...

No, they are all ruined and have quit trading:) I hope you get the message. If not, you can try yourself.

+1 Another great post from sergio77. It is actually worse than that as I believe that expectancy is another silly concept invented by author non-traders. One outlier event and the expectancy changes by a large percentage. It is totally useless to average past trades in an effort to see if...

Hat tip to sergio77. The best comment in this area I have seen in ET for a long time. Bravo!

Assuming that one trades with a reputable broker, the only way to make money in forex is to try to ride a trend because mid frequency trading is not economical due to the spread. Note that brokers open spreads wide whenever they feel their profits are in danger, like during fast markets when...

Can you generate split-adjusted but not dividend-adjusted data in TradersStudio? Also, does EL work?

Welcome to the new brave socialist world.. Obey your public servant. Actually,you are now going to serve the public servant. It happens in Europe, why not in America?

You can make it even simpler than that Make money

Can you be more specific of what day trading involves for you in terms of markets, timeframes, commissions, hardware/software, etc. so then we can get a better idea of what drives your success?

Bone, interest in technical trading discussions will reemerge after the stock market crashes.

Chart 2

The average winner looks like it is around 20 pips and the average loser is about 40 pips. Sooner or later the high risk/reward ratio will catch up with that system.