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Can you share some details of what the awful awful thing that actually happens is? Just characterizing it as "selling garbage puts" provides nothing of use to anyone. (I don't disagree with you; I would just like to know why bad stuff happens when you do that. Knowing the details of those...

"Lentus", as a Roman nickname, would be a close equivalent to "Slug" (i.e., lazy) - but that would be pretty mild by Roman standards; they weren't very complimentary with those things as a general practice. Ahala, Flaccus, Arvina, Verres, Brutus... I'm surprised there wasn't a 'Mentula' in the...

If a billion idiots started painting their bellybuttons blue tomorrow, wouldn't you want to own a factory that produces blue paint of the "right" kind? Logic doesn't enter into what the public decides to like, but the smart folks will happily turn the latest craze into yet more P&L. When I was...

Hmmm. Well, I won't argue; if someone had created an inverse index around my directional bets, they'd be billionaires by now. But - assuming we're not too late to the table - maybe we should take some small positions on our respective viewpoints, just for fun? You hit the CL tomorrow, I'll short...

Gotta mark this, simply because it's so funny: OK, I'm really done now. :D

The futures folks seem a bit less... flappable than the stock market, from what I've seen. They'll look at things like reserves and held-back production capacity while sipping their tea, make some slight eyebrow motions to indicate "well, what can you expect?" and get back to their backgammon...

You clearly don't know anything about Buffett or Soros; all you have are your prejudices which you "support" with media soundbites, which are worse than not having any information at all. If you have any original thinking on the subject, you've hidden it so well that it's not discoverable...

Great. Please explain Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, George Soros, Warren Buffett - for that matter, all successful traders in the world. Are they all accidents? You seem to imagine that a trader's edge is some single fixed action, carved in stone and to be followed religiously whether it works...

Yeah. That's going to rock the boat quite a bit when the market opens.

What, you don't think the Saudi drone strike is going to help him out? :\

Yeah, what with the pork price to China going up like mad.... and the shipping costs would be just about zero, too! Mmm, long pig sammiches.

That's actually where I bought my MH. Didn't like any of the ones they had, but the more I kept describing what I wanted, the odder the look on the salesman's face got... he finally drove us out to his house, and his personal MH was literally exactly what we were looking for. I'm sitting in it...

Well, relying on luck hasn't resulted in a positive P&L for some reason. And the chances of catching SPX in a dark alley and taking its wallet seem pretty low. If you have any sort of a rational approach to trading, then - yes, it's all about probabilities (notice the 'ratio' part in...

Given that price movement in stocks is generally stochastic, I find the idea of it being "not rare" really odd. Volatility on a continuously falling stock is going to stay under 5% for weeks or even months? Seriously? I'd be willing to put some money on one or fewer occurrences in all of market...

No dog in this fight one way or another - but can you point out even a single stock that's done that? I.e., lost 50% of its value "in a slow steady fashion" without reverses? People often bring up contrived scenarios which "could" theoretically screw up a proposed strategy, but... I just don't...

The first indicator I ever rewrote (because I was frankly offended by the idiotic premise behind it) was a "Professional options trader" gadget that used HV/IV to display "trade zones". They were using historical volatility - note that this is not the same thing as historical implied volatility...

I've got a friend who does 0-day ICs on $SPXW.X or SPY from 1 to 3 times a week, somewhere in that delta range; sets the initial stops at 1-1.5x the max profit. Gets stopped out 5-10% of the time, does pretty well otherwise (mostly lets them expire.) I've joined him in doing that several times...

Ah; the kind of thing that used to be known as a "come-to-jesus" letter. The main question is, will AT&T actually pay attention (assuming it can)? The cost of policy change for a behemoth like that would be immense - and that's leaving the various bruised and reactive egos, as well as questions...

Forgot to address this... you didn't know? This may very well be the bone of contention. The NY government and environment is becoming extremely hostile to wealthy people (witness the Amazon deal, lots of other things - my brother runs a real estate place there, and could tell endless stories.)...

@Sig , I'm amused to note - especially since you've mentioned that you own a business, where this kind of comprehension is required as a part of the daily routine - that you keep missing the "required but not sufficient" aspect of what I'm saying. All of these factors - that they would be out...