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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Back from a nice break with little more than golf clubs, books, food, and beer. Making a few portfolio changes: Zillow - now out of all of it; went on their site last night and had some cheesy pop-up ad come up - tells me company is desperate for rev. growth. Happy with 90%+ gain since...
  2. R

    Nly

    Uh, no. The best thing in the world at the moment for the mREITs would be TLT going down (i.e., long rates moving higher). mREITs are getting hammered because rates are too low, not because they're moving up. 1. These guys basically borrow short, lend long. Low long rates cut their net...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Wal-Mart breaking out to new highs. Everyone should listen to this investor meeting going on. Company opened 400 store in the last 6 years without even one new distribution center! I'll take the management at this company over a thousand Zuck's and Johnson's. It boggles my mind the amount of...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Sell GDOT early, sell it often. This WMT/AXP deal is a death sentence for the company.
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Cutting mREIT exposure by 50% this morning. Don't fight the Fed. Still own some WMC, NLY, NCT (though NCT more a mortgage servicing play). Ocwen up 20% yesterday after buying Ross' servicing portfolio. Now they're talking about fighting NSM for Rescap's servicing assets. Red-hot sector. To...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hussman quoting ZH again. :p http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc121001.htm He admits to his indicators essentially having him out of the bull run since April 2010. At what point ought the guy simply shut down? No doubt we'll get a zinger of a bear run at some point, and that should give...
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Tilson presentation: "Why Netflix is a better business than Amazon" Attention-whore much? Clearly angling to get re-invited onto fast money. What an ass.
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The Facebook experience is certainly one for the investing textbooks as those long the stock (incl. me at one point) violate nearly every rule of success - recency effect, anchoring, you name it. Just because the thing came public at $38, folks assume that price has some sort of validity, so...
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bought more CMO this morning. When ex-divvie yesterday (about 2.5%), but the stock price declined far more than that. Something not adding up, but I'll buy first, investigate later. Company is slightly different than the better-known mREITs in that most of the paper it owns is tied to...
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    By the way, far more worrying than the silly Citron report was the CEO of the firm appearing on Cramer last night. That's usually a big, fat sell signal for me, but since I unloaded half my stake a couple of weeks ago, I passed on selling more this morning. Will now look to repurchase those...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Citron giving everybody a chance to get into Z. https://twitter.com/Street_Insider/status/250599606910599168 :cool:
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Trade ideas? Like buying JCP because some rich guy thinks it's a good investment? Wonderful. So basically - on a stock that's gone down nearly every session this year - you've managed to catch just it's rare upswings. Impressive, but obviously untrue. My guess is you rode this puppy down...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    You're deep underwater on JCP (nice job rushing to the board to brag just ahead of a 25% plunge) and ahead a few pennies on FB (I'm long too). What makes you think this trade will work any better?
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    NCT with a 10% dividend increase - unexpected and awesome :cool: NLY with a 9% cut - expected and priced in; best mgmt in the business Cash machines both. NCT in a little better spot because of its tie-up with NSM. CMO rockin' and rollin' as well. The entire sector is a bit frothy, but...
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    :p https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1348085642487&chddm=391&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NYSE:JCP&ntsp=0&ei=hCdaUKjsHcio0AGYdw
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    NSM up another 7% this morning. Looks like it was initiated as a Buy at Compass Point (along with other specialty servicers like OCN and WAC). All are doubles thus far this year. Maybe the easiest money ever. Nice work by Compass Point catching up with a thread on elitetrader several months late!
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I call BS. If I recall, you wanted to buy around $38 from the "idiots" who were selling on the news. The stock subsequently fell to $31 over the following weeks. Since then the stock has rallied, but so have the rest of the universal banks. In fact, JPM has sharply underperformed C and BAC...
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Probably worth another look at the HKD revaluation trade .... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-14/hong-kong-tightens-mortgages-amid-qe3-concerns-of-asset-bubble.html
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Zillow up 10%. LOL. Nice move exiting half the position at $41. (stabs eyes with long knives).:(
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    That statement is something else. This may be a bigger deal than QE and QE2.
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