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OK lol, I'll warp the space-time continuum here on ET and bite... what are the rules?

Jack has been stringing suckers along with that promise for at least six years... ever check out his posts on Usenet?

OP, this is my last post on this thread because I have better things to do than trying to convince people that the earth isn't the center of the universe. My final recommendation is to look at what real traders have actually done to make money, and use that as your guide... instead of taking...

I think you'd be a lot better off if you stopped pretending you know what you're talking about when you actually know that you have no clue.

You brought it up when you offered your uninformed opinion: "The problem with such a small 'edge' becomes..." I think your diaper needs to be changed.

Um... how will ranking past trades tell him in advance which trades will perform best in the future?

Really? Plug his stats into the simulator that ES provided a link to and tell me there's no edge. In case you can't figure out what to do, put .42 in the first box and .82 in the second box, then hit "generate." http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

You can't do decent MCS in excel unless you get an add-in with its own random number generator because the one in excel sucks. This is a huge topic and way beyond what can be answered in one post... it could easily be a never ending thread by itself. I recommend you start by searching ET and...

Excuse me but I did give him a suggestion and a useful one at that. Perhaps you can pull the plug on your computer if you don't want your opinions questioned.

Drawdowns can be greatly reduced and this can easily be seen with MCS analysis. This thing has a profit factor of almost 2 BTW... if stable, I wouldn't call that a small edge.

Then you're just as clueless about MCS as you are about your "feeling" that his system is like gambling. There's a very exploitable edge, assuming his system trades frequently enough. Nearly every major hedge fund and financial institution on earth uses MCS for this kind of analysis.

Monte Carlo Simulation. I recommend you learn as much as you can about it and then run simulations varying money management parameters. This should help you learn how to best exploit your edge and give you more confidence to trade it.

NO! Those quotes are pure Jack. Sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1072482#post1072482 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1078337#post1078337

Not at all. Assuming his stats are from a large enough sample, an MCS shows a definite tradable edge.

I hope he still loves us! :confused:

Jack can still be with us in spirit :D Here are my two favorite Hershey quotes on backtesting: Backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out. The reason why is fairly straightforward to determine. If you are backtesting something and you feel you have grasp the thing you are...

Years! Use optimization to make sure your system parameters are in well behaved regions.

What are you talking about? Jack's already disproved backtesting with his superior logic: Backtesting is not a viable means for finding anything out. The reason why is fairly straightforward to determine. If you are backtesting something and you feel you have grasp the thing you are...

Depends on what you're trying to measure the edge in. For example, if you want to measure the edge of a short term entry technique you're trading on a daily basis, use time exits. Get distributions of trades for your entry method with 1,2,3,4,5,... day exits and compare them to the trade...

The purpose of a trading contest would be CREDIBILITY