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ha ha ha i would not be surprised if that was the ultimate edge, together with insider trading, of a good portion of wizards from schwager's books (both books) not saying this was the case, not trying to downplay their role, just guessing the interviews sound convincing, though, "i did...

let me say this: i secretly hope you can make a living off trading the phrase ‘the odds are stacked against you over the long run’ is like saying ‘there is no Santa Claus’ to an eight-year-old we dream, we want to be free . . . i do too . . . but i don’t want to fall into the...

let me say this: i secretly hope you can make a living off trading the phrase ‘the odds are stacked against you over the long run’ is like saying ‘there is no Santa Claus’ to an eight-year-old we dream, we want to be free . . . i do too . . . but i don’t want to fall into the...

"In the rarefied world of hedge funds, he is one of the greats — a stock-picker who managed to make money, bull market or bear, for more than two decades. But on Wednesday, Arthur J. Samberg told his investors that his long, successful run was over " interesting, very interesting indeed...

edge is good to make look if system balance but edge is estimate, and in some case maybe even illusion warrent buffet "the precision it projects is a chimera" (about something else) but edge is still useful to make approximate look if system balance to the plus i like secret of...

andrew lo is academic and the successful trader traders do need probability estimates, at least i think so, i make look at hoadley probability calculator, for free, this predict range, but not direction, true intraday, 1-point trade on the es is very high probability, but not 7 point trade...

it is the very interesting threads i am scare of the es, stop me too much what if not use stop at all, in YM June 09 contract give good results, if you make good profit target, and the time horizons on YM - 10-day holding period max, the profit target 50 point fix, fix entry at minute...

if have no need probability and the chart, but close information also good

most academic no have properly capitlize to trade, that's why angry at good trader edge is estimate probability is estimate estimate can often make big mistake trader should have probability in toolbox, some technical analysis too, know and respect the random walk, but also the...

ok guys you win probability does not oppose short-term investors probability favors short-term investors the authors of the article got it wrong. they may be good people, but their analytical skills leave more to be desired excellent proof of that is the great shape of our hedge fund...

well i guess my point is that if you're not overtrading, you're ok trading outcomes: can't predict 'em . . .you can only get an approximation, and basically take it from there . . .

yes, some traders really are a little eclectic and there's nothing wrong with that

reasonably cautious: try to find optimal position size, % of equity you risk on a trade. "reasonably" means if your bet per trade is too small, you're not moving anywhere "cautious" means if your bet per trade is too large, you're increasing your risk of ruin "reasonably cautious" means...

true, you don't have to use mathematical definitions to see what's going on with price. (like some people have tried to do, for example kaufman in his skew-kurtosis strategies - look at shape of price distribution to see what's going on, but i don't know if it really work) there are other...

what's weird about making a bona fide attempt to make some money for yourself, per se ? vs enriching your broker only long run . . . what about it? as keynes famously said, in the long run we're all dead Varima Garch

overall, i agree with the article. it's useless to argue with the math of ruin stay out of probability's way or you'll get run over by a bulldozer ByLoSellHi has greatly contributed to the aggregate intellect of the trading community by posting this high-quality article some people get...

i know who you are and where you live. so that you know, i've just provided this information to relevant authorities Varima Garch

food for thought . .. this risk of ruin thing is scary . .. how about pairs trading? has anyone come across any studies on the subject, what are the pitfalls etc? i've skimmed through jonnysharp's journal on pairs trading on this forum and thought it was a clever way to trade, at least...

yawn no trades at all trendy? too bad i'm saying best/worst trades, not days thank you for your input traders

i think this may be interesting to share. no made up stories please provide as much detail as you want let me begin with myself best trade ever: getting lucky by buying a fairly large number of call options on GLD, the gold etf, and selling them for a very large profit a couple of days...