Search results

Actually, card counting will give you a positive expectancy (thank you, Ed Thorp). That's why casinos use multiple decks to reduce/extinguish the advantage. A better analogy might be reliance on astrology to make important decisions in your life.

I'm feeling adventurous so I may as well jump into the fray since I haven't been banned or attacked yet. I think the OP's question can be refined and rephrased to ask "Can historical data have predictive value?". I think that's unlikely for the most popular technical patterns and indicators...

If this is the concern, then you can always prepare a modified version of your system that does not reveal your secret sauce. Create some phony rules that require similar logic as your real rules. When the programmer delivers the code, you will have a working program that you should be able to...

If the "latency arb" opportunity exists because of fragmentation across stock exchanges/ECN's, then how do HFT's gain an edge in the electronic futures markets where each instrument trades on a single exchange?

Programming is a complementary skill to trading. And programmers are resourceful, they know how to use Google to find code snippets. If you're not going to pay a programmer, you need to spend some time acquiring programming skills before you proceed.

If your trading days are based on some common factor that can be programmatically determined using calendar/date functions, that is a better way to go (e.g., first trading day of each month). Otherwise, hard-coding the dates in an array is the next best option. Any easylanguage programmer...

I didn't make any reference to spreads, but thanks for bringing that up. How you use correlations with spread trading depends on whether you are trading relative strength (trend) vs mean reversion (traditional pairs trading). Since bone and his clients trade relative strength, let's stick with...

One observation I'll share is that your comparison of correlations over multiple lookback periods shows how consistent the correlation is or isn't over time. For example, the FDAX and CAC40 pair has a fairly stable two-year correlation of +0.94 which is in the neighborhood of its correlations...

Got it. Of the nine pairs you listed, can you give us your interpretation of one of the pairs and how it fits into your trade analysis and selection? Without revealing any secret sauce, of course.

Are you using indexes or unadjusted continuous contract series for these correlations?

Well, there's obviously a lot more going on here than I am aware of. Enjoying a collegial discussion of trading topics makes me blissfully ignorant in some ways.

Has potential for a divergence indicator.

For real?

I suspect a big part of the reason for the trend in lower attendance is the greater availability of webcasts, videos, and other online resources you can access more conveniently.

What kind of warranty/support does mytechcompass.com provide you? On-site, mail-in, phone?

Just as bone indicated, correlations are best used as a screen or first step in looking for something else that offers value in trading. Correlation itself is not a trade setup or edge.

I'm curious to know which component(s) are most commonly repaired/replaced on refurb units. Is there any way you can tell?

MACD is usually calculated with Exponential Moving Averages. The EasyLanguage formula shown in the previous posts uses a Simple Moving Average. The fix is to change the Average function to XAverage.

I understand the distinction between hedging interest-rate risk with Treasury futures and credit risk with a CDS. I guess if you want to hedge credit risk with an exchange-traded instrument that is readily available to retail, then you go with the ETF's. The problem with most of these ETF's is...

The U.S. interest rate futures indexes that everyone is familiar with are based on U.S. Govt Treasuries. Why isn't there a futures contract that tracks one of the corporate bond indexes? If there needs to be an economic purpose for a futures contract, it seems to me that lots of investors...