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Amen to that. I have just perfected a strategy to generate 2000% return if we have a year like 1999 :)

Period Update for weeks 35-39 ended 10/5/2013 Another period of inconsistent returns just churning and paying slippage and commission. Down 2.6K for the month. Took 2.5K for the month just ended. Have relied exclusively on my tactical trades (all criteria entered way before market opens) as I...

Period Update for weeks 33,34 ended 9/1/2013 Horrible couple of weeks, down 8K. Things were holding pretty steady until the last two trading days when my account broke terribly to the downside. Myself to blame in part for toying with what was working. Took 3K for the month ended 8/31. The...

Period Update for week 32 ended 8/18/2013 Another nice week, up $5,405. Waited till Thurs/Fri before making my week. List of trade results is given below (details left out for strategy privacy). Because it is getting a little bit monotonous, and to reduce urgency to post, I will make my...

Period Update for week 31 ended 8/11/2013 Nice week, up $4,646. Glad for another week of steady action on the account. Somehow haven't managed to step up my percentage size as I still feel the 100K line is still threatened. Opening Balance: 99,200 Net gain for...

No they are not the same thing. But the second (suggested by your friend) is a lot less complicated. You choose to go with simplicity which your clients will understand, or try to convince them to go with a value derived from solving a complex mathematical equation. Yes, I understand what you...

Period Update for week 30 ended 8/3/2013 Flat week, up $275. Couldn't keep any gains. Took out 2.5K for the month of July. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Opening Balance: 101,425 Net gain for period 275...

I don't think having top 10% of weeks or even of trades accounting for all your gains is anything bad. Lots of profitable traders do have that. We need to understand that my man/machine partnership is a work-in-progress. It was even more so the first part of that period (say first 15...

Yes, according to the rule I laid out. But I am thinking of reducing it to monthly: less urgency for me.

Weekly Return Ended P/L 11/01/13 -1732 18/01/13 -3656 25/01/13 8648 01/02/13 -531 08/02/13 2794 15/02/13 5213 22/02/13 -5209 01/03/13 3253 08/03/13 -2352 15/03/13 -1932 22/03/13 2408 28/03/13 -3030 05/04/13 -4689 12/04/13 236 19/04/13 -3073 26/04/13 9116 03/05/13 -2712...

Period Update for weeks 26,27,28,29 (6/29/2013 - 7/27/2013) Glad to announce that I am once again above the surface (six figures). Slow but steady gains the past four weeks. Still lots of work in progress to perfect the man/machine partnership and completely halt deviations. All in all...

The immediate action is to reduce non-essential trades, especially the option trades. Those cost a lot in commission and slippage. My model calls for about 30 option trades in a 6-month period. I have no business doing 140. Most of those were in the earlier part of the year, before I refined my...

But if it is competitive/profitable for the broker (I dont mean a FAT one like Ameritrade that is catering to 10 million dormant accounts with hardly any commission), why is there no broker stepping up into that space. Surely the cost of running the brokerage business cannot be that high. Just...

The more I think about it, the more painful it becomes: I need 35% annual return to break-even on the commission. That is unsustainable. I keep wondering why there is no brokerage that charges a fixed cost per year (dollar or %) + passed costs( like exchange and sec fees), destined for active...

Took the opportunity to analyse my commissions. Since the start of the year, paid $14971 in commission. That was 5422 option contracts total(entry+exit) for 9091 commission and 782600 shares (entry+exit) for 5879. Given that a typical stock trade might be 700 shares @ 40. For Ameritrade, the...

Summary Update Weeks 1 - 25 2013 (1/6/2013 - 6/29/2013) Still treading below the surface, but still alive and trading. For the 25 week period, account up 21K (26%). After a thorough review of where I have come from in the market over the last 10 years, and the tendency for the market to...

Weekly Update for Extra Week ended 1/6/2013 Slow week, just accounting for the week that span 2012 and 2013. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Opening Balance: 89,035 Net loss for period (1,879) Cash...

As promised, I am here to make an update for the mid-year (Jan-Jun 2013). First though, a recap of the final weeks of last year during which my account went below the 100K line. The entries were kept in my personal journal but not posted here. --------------------------------------------------...

Ok revisiting this. If the amount of loss ($407 and $50) are assumed to be your bet size, yes 12.7% and 5.5% are the Kelly fractions. Which means you need smaller bankroll ($909) for(B) than $3204 for (A) (divide bet size by Kelly fraction). Both generate the same $ expectancy, but as a fraction...

I don't think there is enough information to decide what "Kelly fraction" to bet. The figures given are absolute dollar amounts, and nothing is given about your current bankroll that produces those dollar returns. Are we getting 433/407 or 1000/50 based on traded size of $1000 or $100000? we do...